联合国-2021世界经济形势展望（英文）-2021.1-198页_10mb

Summary of the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021 is a comprehensive report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), in collaboration with several UN agencies and regional commissions. It provides an analysis of the global economic impact of the pandemic, outlines recovery prospects, and emphasizes the need for resilience and sustainable development.

Main Points

• Pandemic Impact: The pandemic caused a once-in-a-century crisis, leading to a sharp contraction in global economic activity. World gross product fell by 4.3% in 2020, the largest decline since the Great Depression. Developed economies were hit hardest, with output shrinking by 5.6%, while developing economies saw a 2.5% contraction.

• Regional Variations:

  • Developed Countries: Fiscal stimulus accounted for nearly 80% of the $12.7 trillion global stimulus, with Germany, Japan, and the US contributing over 50%.
  • Least Developed Countries (LDCs): LDCs saw a GDP contraction of 1.3% in 2020, but are expected to grow by 4.9% in 2021.
  • East Asia: Fared better than other developing regions, with GDP expanding by 1% in 2020, largely due to China's robust recovery.
  • Latin America and South Asia: Experienced the sharpest declines in GDP during the pandemic.

• Employment Crisis:

  • Over 2.7 billion workers were affected by lockdowns, representing 81% of the global workforce.
  • Unemployment rates in developed countries remained high, with the OECD reaching 8.8% in April 2020.
  • In developing countries, unemployment surged to record levels, such as 27% in Nigeria and 23% in India.
  • Women were disproportionately affected, particularly in service sectors where remote work is not feasible.

• Potential Output and Productivity:

  • The pandemic is likely to accelerate digitalization and automation, reducing labor demand in the medium term.
  • Productivity growth is expected to falter, and declining investments in fixed capital will further depress potential output.

• Fiscal and Monetary Responses:

  • Massive fiscal stimulus prevented a Great Depression-like scenario, but the response was highly uneven.
  • Developed countries spent an average of $10,000 per capita, while LDCs spent less than $20.
  • Public debt increased by $9.9 trillion globally in 2020, the largest increase since WWII.

• Financial Risks:

  • Excessive liquidity and low inflation have fueled a financial bubble, increasing the risk of instability.
  • Low inflation also threatens the sustainability of public and private debt, as real debt values remain high.

• Inequality and Poverty:

  • The pandemic exacerbated inequality, both within and between countries.
  • Over 131 million people fell into poverty in 2020, and the global poverty headcount is expected to reach 797 million by 2030.
  • The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of ending extreme poverty by 2030 is likely to be missed.

• Recovery and Resilience:

  • A resilient recovery requires addressing economic, social, and environmental vulnerabilities.
  • Strengthening public finance, expanding social protection, and investing in climate resilience are essential.
  • The report warns against austerity measures, which could stifle recovery and hinder progress on SDGs.

• Global Trade and Investment:

  • The pandemic disrupted global trade, international production networks, and demand.
  • There is a need for a more resilient and inclusive global trade system to support sustainable development.

Key Information

• Contributors: The report was produced in partnership with UNCTAD, UNECA, UNECE, UNECLAC, UNESCAP, UNESCWA, UNWTO, and UN-OHRLLS.

• Forecasting Model: Forecasts are based on the World Economic Forecasting Model (WEFM) and inputs from regional commissions.

• Contact Information:

  • UN DESA: Liu Zhenmin, undesa@un.org
  • UNCTAD: Mukhisa Kituyi, sgo@unctad.org
  • UNECA: Vera Songwe, ecainfo@uneca.org
  • UNECE: Olga Algayerova, unece_info@un.org
  • UNECLAC: Alicia Barcena, se cepal@cepal.org
  • UNESCAP: Armida Alisjahbana, escap-scas@un.org
  • UNESCWA: Rola Dashti, https://www.unescwa.org/contact
  • UNWTO: Sandra Carvão, michel.julian@unwto.org
  • UN-OHRLLS: Susanna Wolf, susanna.wolf@un.org

• ISBN: 978-92-1-109182-3

• eISBN: 978-92-1-005498-0

• Sales No.: E.21.II.C.1

Conclusion

The pandemic has had profound and lasting impacts on the global economy, with significant setbacks in growth, employment, and poverty reduction. The report underscores the importance of inclusive and sustainable recovery strategies, emphasizing the need to address inequality, build resilience, and ensure that fiscal and monetary policies support long-term development and stability. The path to recovery must be guided by the principles of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.