经济分析与政策2023年1月2023年世界经济形势与展-178页_10mb

Summary of World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023

Core Content

The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2023 report, produced by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) in partnership with UNCTAD and five regional commissions, presents a comprehensive analysis of the global economic outlook, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Main Points

• Global Economic Slowdown:

  • The global economy is expected to experience a broad-based and severe slowdown, with growth projected to decrease from 3% in 2022 to 1.9% in 2023, marking one of the lowest growth rates in recent decades.
  • Growth is forecast to modestly recover to 2.7% in 2024 if macroeconomic headwinds ease.

• Inflationary Pressures:

  • Inflation remains high, with the global average reaching the highest level in two decades in 2022.
  • Central banks have aggressively tightened monetary policy, with over 85% of monetary authorities raising interest rates in 2022.
  • The Federal Reserve increased rates six times, leading to the largest cumulative rate increase since 1980.
  • Inflation is expected to gradually decline in 2023, but remain elevated due to weak demand and supply-side constraints.

• Developed Economies:

  • The US, EU, and UK are facing economic challenges, with the US projected to grow by 0.4% in 2023, the EU by 0.2%, and the UK by -0.8%.
  • Japan is expected to grow at 1.5%, slightly lower than its 2022 growth of 1.6%, due to chip shortages and weak external demand.

• Developing Regions:

  • China: Projected to grow by 4.8% in 2023, slightly below the pre-pandemic rate of 6-6.5%.
  • East Asia: Expected to grow by 4.4% in 2023, up from 3.2% in 2022, mainly due to China's recovery.
  • South Asia: Growth is projected to moderate to 4.8% in 2023, with India expected to grow at 5.8%.
  • Western Asia: Average growth is expected to slow from 6.4% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2023 due to worsening external conditions.
  • Africa: Growth is projected to slow to 3.8% in 2023, down from 4.1% in 2022, due to external shocks, high debt burdens, and weak domestic demand.
  • Latin America and the Caribbean: Regional growth is expected to slow to 1.4% in 2023, down from 3.8% in 2022, due to limited policy space and high inflation.
  • Least Developed Countries: Face significant challenges, with growth at 4.4% in 2023, below the SDG 8 target of 7%.

• Debt and Financial Vulnerabilities:

  • Developing countries are experiencing heightened debt distress and balance of payment challenges due to high borrowing costs, currency depreciation, and capital outflows.
  • Debt servicing costs have increased, with Africa's debt servicing averaging 10% of government revenues in 2021, up from 3% in 2011.
  • Fiscal space is under pressure, limiting the ability of governments to invest in sustainable development and social protection.

• Impact on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):

  • The economic slowdown, high inflation, and rising debt are threatening progress on the SDGs.
  • Job recovery has been uneven, with developed economies seeing tighter labour markets and developing economies facing significant employment slack.
  • The global food and energy crisis, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, has worsened food insecurity and pushed millions into poverty.
  • The Black Sea Grain Initiative has helped resume food exports from Ukraine, but uncertainty remains over the conflict's duration and potential export restrictions.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Policymakers are urged to avoid short-term fiscal austerity, which can worsen inequality and hinder SDG progress.
  • A transformative SDG stimulus package is recommended, focusing on public investments in infrastructure, education, and health.
  • International support and debt restructuring are essential to stabilize the global economy and promote sustainable development.

Key Information

• Partners and Contributors: The report is produced by UN DESA in collaboration with UNCTAD and five regional commissions (ECA, ECE, ECLAC, ESCAP, ESCWA), with contributions from UNWTO and other organizations.
• Contact Information:
  • UN DESA: Li Junhua, undesa@un.org
  • UNCTAD: Rebeca Grynspan, sgo@unctad.org
  • UNECA: Antonio Pedro, ecainfo@uneca.org
  • UNECE: Olga Algayerova, unece_info@un.org
  • UNECLAC: Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, secepal@cepal.org
  • UNESCAP: Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana, escap-scas@un.org
  • UNESCWA: Rola Dashti, @www.unescwa.org/contact
• ISBN and Publication Details:
  • ISBN: 978-92-1-109184-7
  • PDF ISBN: 978-92-1-002461-7
  • Print ISSN: 1995-2074
  • Online ISSN: 2411-8370
  • United Nations publication Sales No. E.23.II.C.1
• Data and Classification:
  • Data available as of 15 December 2022.
  • The Government of Ukraine has not provided data on Crimea and Sevastopol.
  • Country classifications are detailed in the statistical annex.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for coordinated and transformative fiscal measures to address the multiple shocks impacting the global economy, including inflation, debt distress, and climate change. It advocates for a shift from short-term austerity to long-term investment in sustainable development, highlighting the importance of international cooperation and support for developing countries.