20150708-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_21页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 08 July 2015
Core Content
The document provides a summary of market strategies and stock recommendations for several Asian markets, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, along with key financial data and analysis for Sinopharm Group (1099 HK).
Main Points
China Strategy
- Stay With Big Caps: Due to recent market volatility, the focus is on larger-cap stocks with decent yields and policy support.
- Market Volatility: Investor confidence has been shaken, and the Chinese equity market is expected to remain weak in the short term.
- Policy and Economic Factors: The Chinese government still has policy room to stimulate the economy, but monetary easing and asset reflation are not enough. Fiscal policies and improved local government finances are needed.
- Earnings Recovery: A sustainable rebound in the equity market requires earnings growth, which is currently lagging behind nominal GDP growth.
- Key Catalysts: The announcement of the 13th Five-Year Plan and details on Manufacturing 2025 are expected to be stronger catalysts for the stock market.
Indonesia Strategy
- Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ/NOT RATED/Rp389): Profit growth and multiple expansion are highlighted as key factors.
Malaysia Sector
- Rubber Gloves: Natural rubber glove makers are expected to outperform peers in 2H15 due to improving production mix and productivity gains.
Singapore Sector
- Telecommunications: 60MHz of spectrum has been set aside to facilitate the entry of a fourth mobile operator.
Thailand Strategy
- New SET Index Target and Sector Ratings: Avoid high beta domestic plays; selective BUYs include PTT, IRPC, CENTEL, HANA, BDMS, ADVANC, TVO, and CK.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17776.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | (0.4) | (0.3) |
| S&P 500 | 2081.3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | (0.5) | 1.1 |
| FTSE 100 | 6432.2 | (1.6) | (1.4) | (5.5) | (2.0) |
| AS30 | 5564.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 3.3 |
| CSI 300 | 3928.0 | (1.8) | (12.2) | (26.6) | 11.2 |
| FSSTI | 3340.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | (0.7) |
| HSCEI | 11827.3 | (3.3) | (6.8) | (16.2) | (1.3) |
| HSI | 24975.3 | (1.0) | (3.8) | (8.6) | 5.8 |
| JCI | 4906.1 | (0.2) | (0.1) | (2.2) | (6.1) |
| KLCI | 1712.3 | (0.3) | 0.3 | (1.6) | (2.8) |
| KOSPI | 2040.3 | (0.7) | (1.6) | (1.2) | 6.5 |
| Nikkei 225 | 20376.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | (0.4) | 16.8 |
| SET | 1483.8 | 0.7 | (1.8) | (1.6) | (0.9) |
| TWSE | 9250.2 | (0.1) | (0.8) | (1.3) | (0.6) |
| BDI | 830 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 36.1 | 6.1 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2234 | (1.4) | (0.5) | (2.7) | (2.7) |
| Nymex Crude | 53 | 0.8 | (11.3) | (9.2) | (0.9) |
Top Picks
| Stock Name | Ticker | Current Price (HK$) | Target Price (HK$) | Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital | 694 HK | 7.97 | 12.30 | 54.3 |
| ICBC | 1398 HK | 5.95 | 7.80 | 31.1 |
| Bank BJB | BJBR IJ | 825.00 | 1,300.00 | 57.6 |
| Maybank | MAY MK | 9.15 | 10.30 | 12.6 |
| DBS | Dbs SP | 20.98 | 25.08 | 19.5 |
| SATS Ltd | SATS SP | 3.64 | 4.00 | 9.9 |
| Kasikornbank | KBANK TB | 182.00 | 232.00 | 27.5 |
| PTT | PTT TB | 349.00 | 410.00 | 17.5 |
Company Update: Sinopharm Group (1099 HK)
Core Information
- Company Description: Sinopharm Group is the largest pharmaceutical distributor in China.
- Stock Data:
- GICS sector: Health Care
- Bloomberg ticker: 1099 HK
- Shares issued (m): 1,192.8
- Market cap (HK$m): 82,736.1
- Market cap (US$m): 10,668.1
- 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$m): 29.1
Financial Performance
- Revenue Growth: Expected to slow from 18-16% yoy to 16-14% yoy for 2015-17.
- Gross Margin: Expected to remain above 8% despite lower drug prices.
- Net Profit: Forecasted to be Rmb3.55b, Rmb4.36b, and Rmb5.35b for 2015-17.
- EPS Growth: Projected to grow at a 22% CAGR for 2015-17.
- Valuation: Upgraded to BUY with a new target price of HK$35.30, based on 22x 2015F PE.
Key Catalysts
- Industry consolidation continues to benefit leading players.
- Rapid market expansion in lower-tier cities enables the company to grow faster than the industry.
Risks
- Impact from continued hospital reform and related policies.
- Pricing regulations and provincial drug tender programs may continue to lower drug prices.
- Anti-corruption measures.
- E-commerce competitors.
Key Financials
| Metric | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net turnover (Rmbm) | 200,131.3 | 231,796.8 | 265,840.7 | 303,430.9 |
| EBITDA (Rmbm) | 8,697.2 | 9,994.5 | 11,294.5 | 12,711.2 |
| Net profit (Rmbm) | 2,874.8 | 3,553.5 | 4,363.8 | 5,350.5 |
| EPS (fen) | 111.2 | 128.4 | 157.7 | 193.4 |
| PE (x) | 21.5 | 18.6 | 15.2 | 12.4 |
| P/B (x) | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Net Margin (%) | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
Summary
The document outlines the current market strategies for various Asian regions, emphasizing the importance of focusing on large-cap stocks in China due to market volatility and the need for earnings recovery. It highlights Sinopharm Group as a key BUY recommendation with a revised target price and provides detailed financial forecasts, valuation metrics, and potential catalysts for the company's performance. The analysis also includes a list of top picks across different sectors and regions, along with key economic indicators and market trends.
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