2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mongolia_Second_Post_39页_1mb

Mongolia: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the findings and recommendations of the IMF staff team during the Second Post-Program Monitoring discussions with Mongolian officials in September 2011. It focuses on the country's macroeconomic situation, fiscal and monetary policy responses, and risks to economic stability.

Main Points

1. Economic Context

• Mongolia successfully completed an 18-month Stand-By Arrangement in October 2010.
• The economy has experienced rapid expansion, driven by strong global commodity prices and excessive macroeconomic policies.
• The country is now facing overheating, with real GDP growth reaching 20% in the third quarter of 2011.
• Inflation has accelerated, and monetary policy has not been proactive enough to counter the surge in credit growth.

2. Policy Discussions

A. The Economy is Overheating

• Real GDP growth has surged due to booming mineral exports, rising coal production, and strong domestic demand.
• Inflation is volatile and has been driven by both food and non-food price pressures.
• The economy is at risk of overheating, which could push inflation above the authorities' targets.
• The staff warned that the current growth trajectory is not sustainable and could lead to macroeconomic instability.

B. Fiscal Policy has Returned to the Boom-Bust Ways of the Past

• The 2011 budget amendment included an 8% increase in nominal spending, which is 13% above the medium-term budget framework.
• The government is using a development bank as an off-budget vehicle for additional spending, which may undermine fiscal responsibility.
• The 2012 budget assumes a significant increase in nominal GDP and revenue, with a 50% wage increase in the first half of the year.
• The staff argued that fiscal spending should be kept at or below the medium-term targets to avoid further inflationary pressures.
• A targeted poverty benefit was included in the 2012 budget to protect the poor from the planned cuts in universal transfers.

C. Monetary Policy has been Tightened, but More Needs to be Done

• Monetary policy has been tightened, with a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate and a 200 basis point increase in reserve requirements.
• Despite these measures, inflationary pressures remain high, and more proactive steps are needed.
• The staff recommended further tightening of monetary conditions, including raising the policy rate, implementing macro-prudential measures, and enforcing stricter capital adequacy requirements.
• The flexible exchange rate regime is considered effective and should be maintained.
• The central bank has not intervened significantly in the market, and the exchange rate has remained stable in real effective terms.

3. Risks

• Mongolia is vulnerable to a global downturn and a decline in commodity prices, especially copper.
• The surge in credit growth is increasing banking system risks and highlights the need for stricter prudential regulations.
• The economy has become more resilient due to reforms, but risks remain, especially from fiscal and monetary missteps.

Key Information

• Fiscal Policy: The 2011 budget amendment increased spending by 8% of GDP, with the government using loans and new capital spending to fund this. This poses a risk to inflation and fiscal sustainability.
• Monetary Policy: The central bank has taken steps to tighten monetary conditions, but more action is needed to curb inflation and credit growth.
• Exchange Rate Policy: The flexible exchange rate regime is deemed effective and should continue to serve as a shock absorber.
• Banking Sector: The banking system has returned to profitability, but credit growth is raising concerns about credit quality and systemic risks.
• Major Projects: Two large mining projects (Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi) are expected to significantly boost export earnings and fiscal revenue, with Oyu Tolgoi set to start production in mid-2012.
• Inflation: Inflation has been volatile, with the GDP deflator inflation expected to exceed 15% in 2012, and the central bank is advised to take further measures to control it.
• Authorities' Views: The government believes the economy is resilient and that growth will continue. They expect the 2012 budget to allow them to meet fiscal responsibility law targets in 2013 and plan to introduce a targeted social safety net to protect the poor.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The staff report emphasizes the urgent need for Mongolia to reorient its macroeconomic policies to address overheating and inflationary pressures. While the government is optimistic about the economy's resilience and growth prospects, the IMF highlights the risks of fiscal and monetary missteps and calls for more disciplined spending and proactive monetary tightening to ensure long-term stability.