2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mongolia_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Third_Post_66页_1mb

Summary of the 2012 Article IV Consultation and Third Post-Program Monitoring for Mongolia

Core Content

The 2012 Article IV Consultation and Third Post-Program Monitoring for Mongolia, conducted by the IMF, focused on assessing the country's economic developments, fiscal and monetary policies, and long-term growth prospects. The report highlighted both progress and challenges in maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability amid a highly volatile and commodity-dependent economy.

Key Issues and Findings

Economic Development and Outlook

• Mongolia has experienced strong economic growth, averaging 8% annually over the past decade, driven by foreign direct investment (FDI) in the mining sector.
• Per capita GDP increased fivefold, and Mongolia became eligible for non-concessional borrowing from international institutions.
• Despite growth, poverty remains high (around 30% of the population), unemployment is elevated, and inequality is increasing.
• The 2012 growth rate slowed to 10% (year-on-year) in the first nine months, compared to 17% in 2011.
• The outlook for 2012 remains favorable, with growth projected to stay in double digits, supported by continued expansion in mining and expansionary fiscal policy.
• Inflation is expected to remain elevated throughout 2013, driven by strong domestic demand and volatile food prices.

Fiscal Policy Challenges

• The fiscal deficit is expected to widen in 2012 to over 9% of GDP, up from 4.75% in 2011.
• The 2012 Supplementary Budget and the draft 2013 Budget have overly optimistic revenue projections, leading to an incorrect belief that spending can be expanded without breaching the Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) structural deficit ceiling of 2% of GDP.
• Off-budget spending by the Development Bank of Mongolia (DBM) is significant and risks undermining fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability.
• DBM's spending is not fully captured in the general government budget and could push the structural deficit beyond its limit.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy

• Inflation has remained high (around 15%) despite monetary tightening, including a 225-basis-point increase in the policy rate and a 700-basis-point increase in reserve requirements.
• The floating exchange rate regime is considered appropriate, with interventions limited to smoothing excessive volatility.
• The togrog has depreciated by 7% against the U.S. dollar, and Net International Reserves (NIR) have declined by a third, reaching a two-year low of US$1.5 billion.
• Gross International Reserves (GIR) remain high at US$2.6 billion, but the share of borrowed reserves has increased to 43%.

Structural Reforms and Financial Sector Stability

• The government has introduced several laws to strengthen the fiscal policy framework, including the Fiscal Stability Law (FSL), Integrated Budget Law (IBL), and Social Welfare Law (SWL).
• These laws aim to ensure that Mongolia's resource wealth supports sustainable development and reduces poverty.
• Structural reforms are needed to improve the business climate and private sector productivity.
• Efforts to strengthen the financial sector should continue, with a priority on developing a government bond market.
• The 2010/2011 FSAP recommendations remain relevant, and further implementation is necessary to address banking sector vulnerabilities.

Main Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Policy: Public spending must be reined in to avoid undermining macroeconomic stability. The FSL should be strictly adhered to, and the DBM's off-budget spending must be brought under control.
• Monetary Policy: Further monetary tightening is not advisable at this stage. The central bank should maintain a flexible exchange rate regime and intervene only to limit excessive volatility.
• DBM Reforms: The DBM's role should be clarified to ensure alignment with the FSL. It should be restricted to financing viable, revenue-generating projects, and its independence and supervision should be strengthened.
• Contingency Planning: A prioritized list of capital expenditure items should be prepared for the 2013 budget to manage fiscal risks and ensure efficient use of resources.
• Public Investment Efficiency: The government should improve the efficiency of public investment to fund critical economic and social projects within resource constraints.

Risks and Outlook

• External Risks: Mongolia's external position remains under pressure, with continued reliance on commodity exports and FDI inflows.
• Downside Risks: A decline in non-oil commodity prices and volumes could significantly impact the fiscal and external accounts.
• Fiscal Risks: Continued expansionary fiscal policy and potential underperformance of the DBM could lead to a breach of the FSL structural deficit ceiling.
• Long-Term Prospects: Mongolia's medium-term growth prospects are positive, with mining output expected to grow by over 20% annually through 2017. However, non-mining growth will require continued structural reforms and improved business climate.

Authorities' Views

• The government broadly agreed with the IMF's assessment of the economic outlook.
• They aim to reduce inflation to single digits and contain the budget deficit to 2% of GDP.
• They emphasize the need for increased infrastructure investment to support export growth and reduce reliance on the mining sector.
• A working group has been established to develop contingency plans in response to uncertain export trends and global economic risks.

Conclusion

The 2012 Article IV Consultation underscores the importance of maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability in Mongolia, particularly in light of its reliance on the mining sector and volatile fiscal and monetary conditions. While the economy has made significant progress, the implementation of fiscal and structural reforms remains critical to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth.