塞尔维亚宏观经济发展报告-英-27页_833kb

Serbia Economic Overview (November 2023)

1. Macroeconomic Stability Amid Crisis

• GDP Growth: Maintained cumulative real GDP growth of 9.5% (2020-2022), projected at 2.5% for 2023 and 3-4% in 2024, with pre-crisis rates expected in the medium term.
• Inflation: Inflation peaked in Q1 2023 (8.5% y/y), declining to 8.5% by October 2023, projected to fall further, returning to the target tolerance band by mid-2024.
• Current Account Balance (CAD): CAD for 2023 projected at €1.7 billion (2.5% of GDP), revised up for 2024 to €2.9 billion (3.8%), driven by investment and export growth.

2. Fiscal and Monetary Conditions

• Public Debt: Public debt at 51.3% of GDP (September 2023), on a downward trajectory, within Maastricht criteria.
• Fiscal Deficit: Revised deficit strategy for 2023 targets a 2.8% share of GDP, expected reduction to -1.5% in the medium term.
• Monetary Policy: Interest rate held steady at 6.5%, supported by declining inflation and revised reserve requirements to tighten liquidity.

3. Export Growth and Trade Resilience

• Trade: Goods exports grew by 28% in 2022, with service exports up 42%. In 2023, goods exports increased by 5.8% y/y, services by 20.7%, while imports decreased by 6% for goods due to reduced intermediates imports.
• Diversification: Trade partners expanded to over 70 countries, with Germany and Russia remaining key, but geographic diversification strengthened resilience.

4. Investment and Banking Sector

• Investments: Fixed investment growth boosted by FDI (record inflows) and government investments. Investment share in GDP rose to almost 24% in 2022, supported by infrastructure projects.
• Banking Stability: Non-performing loans (NPLs) reduced to 3.17% (September 2023) through systematic NPL resolution strategies. Capitalization ratios are strong, with high liquidity and capital buffers.

5. Labour and Productivity

• Unemployment: Unemployment rate at 9.6% (single-digit) in Q2 2023, the lowest level in years. Productivity growth contributed to GDP acceleration from 2021 onward.
• Wages and Employment: Real wages increased in 2023, with formal employment growing by 2.6% y/y, particularly in private services, ICT, and manufacturing.

6. Currency and External Stability

• FX Reserves: FX reserves at a record €24.4 billion (October 2023), appreciating the dinar marginally against the euro.
• Risk Premium: Reduced global risk premium supported by stable BoP and strong investor confidence. International credit agencies (S&P, Fitch) confirmed a BB+ rating with stable outlook.