2023-11-21-IEA-阿根廷能源概况_13页_9mb

报告摘要

Argentina Energy Outlook Summary

Argentina is a key player in Latin America's energy sector, with significant natural gas reserves and the largest producer of natural gas in the region. The country is also the largest lithium producer and has the largest compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle fleet globally.

Key Data

Population: Approximately 45 million (2022 estimate).
GDP: $29,300 USD per capita (2022, PPP).
Major Energy Exports: Natural gas, oil, electricity, chemicals, and machinery.
Energy Consumption:
- Transport and buildings account for 2/3 of total final energy use.
- In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), final energy consumption increases by 50% by 2050 due to limited electrification and efficiency gains.
- In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), final energy consumption rises by only 17% by 2050, driven by strong electrification and efficiency improvements.

Policy and Measures

National Goals: Argentina targets GHG neutrality by 2050 with 8% renewable energy penetration by 2030.
Clean Energy Transition: Subsidies, support for hydrogen development (e.g., 2023-2050 Hydrogen Strategy), and national energy transition plans have been announced to reduce energy subsidies and promote renewables.
Just Transition: Green employment programs and gender-focused initiatives (e.g., mining women's network) are part of the strategy.
Forest Land Use: Pilot REDD+ program to reduce deforestation emissions with a 2027 target.

Infrastructure

Major projects include the CAREM nuclear reactor (32 MW, 2027), hydroelectric plants such as Jorge Cepernic (2025), and hydrogen/ammonia production plants like the Rio Negro facility (2024).
Gas pipelines, electricity transmission networks, and renewable energy integration are being scaled up.

Future Scenarios

STEPS Scenario (Current Policies): Relies on natural gas for energy growth, with moderate renewable deployment. Bioenergy and nuclear play limited roles.
APS Scenario (Ambitious Pledges): Strong emphasis on electrification, energy efficiency, and renewable energy. Solar PV and wind will supply 67% of electricity by 2050, hydrogen-based energy would surpass 3 Mt of low-emissions hydrogen by 2050.

Challenges

High levels of energy intensity relative to other nations.
Reliance on fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas, with oil accounting for 80% of transport energy currently.
Limited growth in renewables under the STEPS, leading to higher CO₂ emissions by 2050 compared to the APS.