2023-11-21-IEA-墨西哥能源概况_13页_9mb

Mexico Energy Profile in Latin America Outlook

Economic and Energy Overview

Mexico is the second-largest economy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), with a GDP ranking at 11th in 2022 PPP, and it is the largest steel producer and oil producer in the region as well as globally. Population is 127 million (2022), urban areas dominate, and it faces challenges in CO2 emissions (469 Mt in 2030) and energy intensity (3.7 GJ per thousand USD). Energy consumption patterns show high reliance on fossil fuels, with transport accounting for 40% of final energy use and industry contributing significantly to demand growth.

Policy Developments (2012-2023)

Key policies drive energy transition:

• Economy-wide: 40% GHG reduction target by 2030 (conditional).
• Carbon Tax: Implemented in 2014, taxed on carbon content but excludes natural gas.
• AFOLU: National REDD+ strategy for net-zero deforestation by 2030.
• Critical Minerals: 2022 decree to exploit lithium through state-owned company.
• Oil and Gas: Joining Global Methane Pledge and regulations on methane emissions.
• Power: Energy Transition Law aims for 35% clean energy share in electricity by 2024.
• Transport: Standards for vehicle efficiency and target for 100% electric vehicle sales by 2050; draft strategy for electric mobility.
• Buildings: Energy efficiency requirements for appliances and lighting.

Infrastructure Projects

Major ongoing and planned projects include:

• Solar power plants like Hidalgo Mediano (2025), Energía Los Cabos (2024), and Delicias Solar (2026).
• Liquefaction facilities for LNG exports (e.g., 3 Mt/year by 2024).
• Refineries, such as Olmeca refining capacity increase.

Energy Scenarios: STEPS vs. APS

• STEPS (Stated Policies): Energy consumption grows steadily, with natural gas dominating; investments still favor fossil fuels.
• APS (Announced Pledges): Higher ambition, with increased clean energy investment (up to 0.9% of GDP by 2050), electrification in transport and buildings leading to reduced oil demand and higher renewable share.
• By 2050, APS shows lower natural gas use and significant growth in solar PV and wind, with energy demand in transport and buildings doubling.

Future Trends and Challenges

Mexico faces challenges in reducing emissions and transitioning to sustainable energy, with policy gaps in areas like bioenergy and higher fossil fuel dependence in some sectors. Opportunities include leveraging electrification, renewable integration, and smart grid technologies to meet SDG 7 for energy access. The gap between scenarios highlights the need for stronger commitments to avoid reliance on unabated fossil fuels.