未来能源研究所-2023年全球能源展望：播下能源转型的种子（英）-2023.3-44页_6mb

Global Energy Outlook 2023: Summary

• Current Status: Global consumption of coal, oil, and gas remains at historical highs despite commitments to emissions reductions. Clean energy investments surged in 2022 to $1.1T, yet CO₂ emissions also reached record levels, highlighting the challenge of decarbonizing the massive energy system.

• Regional Variations:

  • Europe: Policy-driven transition accelerated by the Ukraine invasion, but coal use has rebounded. By 2050, fossil fuels’ share may fall to 59–62% of primary energy.
  • China: Population decline and economic slowdown project lower energy demand; coal demand peaks early under ambitious scenarios, while nuclear and renewables expand.
  • India: Largest growth in energy demand; fossil fuels dominate but renewables and nuclear are scaling rapidly by 2050.

• Energy Sources:

  • Electricity, hydrogen, and biomass are key for decarbonization. By 2050, renewables may generate more electricity than today globally under aggressive scenarios.
  • Negative emissions technologies (NETs) like CCS and direct air capture are essential, with massive scale-ups required.

• Policy and Implementation: US Inflation Reduction Act and EU policies are spurring clean energy deployment, but local permitting and infrastructure acceptability remain barriers. Current policies fall short of climate targets.

• Outlook: Achieving 1.5°C/2°C goals requires quadrupling renewable growth and phasing out fossil fuels. Most scenarios show natural gas demand peaking by 2030–2045, while coal declines faster under stricter policies.