2025-04-20-ITIF-小型模块化反应堆_核电未来的现实主义方法（英）_75页_1mb

Small Modular Reactors Summary

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) represent a promising alternative to traditional large-scale nuclear reactors, offering potential advantages in cost, flexibility, and scalability. This summary outlines key insights, advantages, risks, derisking strategies, and policy recommendations based on extensive analysis.

Key Insights

• SMRs are more promising than large reactors, which cannot achieve cost competitiveness due to scale limitations.
• DOE should refocus on SMRs to pursue price and performance parity (P3) with other energy sources.
• Four distinct risk categories threaten SMR viability: technology, market, political, and regulatory.
• Successful scale-up requires factory production, learning curves, regulatory reforms, and derisking strategies.

Potential Advantages

• Flexibility and Lower Costs: Factory-built SMRs reduce capital expenditures, construction timelines, and enable economies of scale.
• Economic and Environmental Benefits: Lower operational costs, reduced emissions compared to fossil fuels, and reliable 24/7 power generation.
• Expanded Markets: Applications include remote/off-grid power, desalination, industrial heating, data centers, and national security.
• Reliability: High capacity factors (~93% for nuclear) and reduced system costs compared to intermittent renewables.

Challenges and Risks

• Technology Risks: Lack of proven designs, innovation challenges, limited test infrastructure.
• Market Risks: Intense competition (gas, renewables, batteries), uncertain demand, volatile energy markets.
• Political Risks: Regulatory instability, NIMBYism, and shifting governmental support.
• Regulatory Risks: Unclear pathways for design iteration, transportation authorization, waste management delays.

Derisking Strategies and Recommendations

• Risk Mitigation: Strategies include financial derisking (e.g., CfDs, risk tranching), supply chain support, and improved interagency coordination.
• Policy Actions:
  • Expand basic/advanced R&D funding, prioritize P3 assessments.
  • Reform loan programs (LPO) to focus on scale-up and derisking.
  • Strengthen NRC rules for innovation-friendly certification.
  • Enhance transparency in funding and project evaluations.

SMRs have the potential to achieve P3 and become a global strategic industry by addressing risks through targeted policy and innovation investments.