2026年4月全球货物贸易晴雨表_3页_236kb

Goods Trade Barometer Summary (April 2026)

Core Content

The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator that provides an early signal of the direction of world trade relative to recent trends. It is composed of several component indices, each reflecting different aspects of trade activity.

Key Index Values

• Goods Trade Barometer Index (April 2026): 101.7
  • Slightly down from January 2026 (102.3), but still above the baseline of 100, indicating trade volumes remain above trend.
• Electronic Components Index: 105.5
  • Strongly above trend, driven by increased demand due to AI investment.
• Export Orders Index: 100.5
  • Slightly above trend, suggesting continued demand for traded goods.
• Agricultural Raw Materials Index: 98.9
  • Below trend, indicating potential weakness in this sector.
• Automotive Products Index: 99.8
  • Slightly below trend, though still close to the baseline.
• International Air Freight Index: 102.2
  • Above trend, showing expansion in air freight despite a slower pace than earlier.
• Container Shipping Index: 102.4
  • Also above trend, reflecting continued growth in container port throughput.

Main Views

• The barometer suggests that global merchandise trade growth is beginning to slow, but remains above the trend.
• The Middle East conflict has had a negative impact on trade, but this has been partially offset by rising demand for electronic components linked to AI investment.
• Export orders and air freight continue to signal resilience in trade demand.
• Container shipping remains a strong indicator of trade activity, with expansion continuing albeit at a reduced pace.
• The automotive sector is slightly below trend, but still shows some stability.
• Agricultural raw materials are the most vulnerable component, with a significant drop below trend.

Drivers of Trade

• AI Investment: Surging demand for electronic components is a key driver of trade growth.
• Tariff Hikes: Anticipated increases in tariffs led to accelerated purchases in early 2025, contributing to higher trade volumes.
• Global Economic Conditions: The barometer reflects the balance between growth and headwinds, including high energy prices and regional conflicts.

Trade Outlook

• The WTO's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics (GTOS) report from 19 March 2026 predicts a baseline trade growth of 1.9% for 2026.
• Under a high energy price scenario, growth is expected to be 1.4%, reflecting the negative impact of the Middle East conflict.
• Sustained AI investment could add 0.5 percentage points to the growth rate, highlighting its positive influence on trade.

Methodology and Sources

• The barometer is based on data from various reliable sources, including:
  • J.P. Morgan PMI (Export Orders): S&P Global and ISM.
  • International Air Freight: IATA and WorldACD.
  • Container Shipping: RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index.
  • Automotive Sales and Production: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, ACEA, JAMA, CAAM.
  • Electronic Components and Agricultural Raw Materials: Trade Data Monitor LLC.
  • World Merchandise Trade Volume: WTO and UNCTAD.
• Methodology details can be found on the WTO website.

Conclusion

Despite challenges from the Middle East conflict and high energy prices, global goods trade remains resilient, with growth above trend. The rise in demand for electronic components, particularly due to AI investment, is a major positive factor. However, some sectors, such as agricultural raw materials and automotive products, show signs of weakness. Overall, the barometer indicates a stable, albeit slowing, trajectory for global merchandise trade in 2026.