2024-12-14-WTO-2024年10月货物贸易晴雨表_3页_624kb

Goods Trade Barometer Summary (October 2024)

The Goods Trade Barometer indicates moderate trade growth, with an index value of 102.7 in October 2024, above the baseline of 100 and suggesting persistent expansion through the remainder of 2024. However, rising economic uncertainty and potential trade policy shifts pose risks. Global merchandise trade volume is expected to grow at 2.7% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, following a deep slump in 2022-2023. Asian exports and North American imports have outperformed expectations, while European trade flows are declining. Component indices show mixed results, with most above trend except for electronic components at 95.4, though export demand and logistics sectors, such as automotive and container shipping, remain strong.