2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Arab_Emirates_Selected_Issues_57页_796kb

United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This document outlines the macroprudential policy framework in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), along with risks in the government-related enterprise (GRE) sector. It was prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in June 2013 as background for policy consultations with the UAE, emphasizing the importance of macroprudential policies in maintaining financial stability in a small, open, and commodity-dependent economy.

Main Types of Macroprudential Instruments

Macroprudential instruments are categorized into three main types:

1. Ex Ante Instruments: Aim to contain risks before they materialize. These include:

   • Risk measurement methodologies (e.g., risk measures calibrated through the cycle)
   • Cyclical conditionality in supervisory ratings
   • Measures of systemic vulnerability (e.g., commonality of exposures and risk profiles)
   • Communication of official assessments and macro stress test results

2. Ex Post Instruments: Designed to absorb shocks and limit damage to the financial system and real economy. These include:

   • Insurance mechanisms
   • Policies for managing failure and resolution

3. Intermediate Instruments: Focus on early-stage risk mitigation. These include:

   • Supervisory review (Pillar 2)
   • Profit redistribution restrictions

Key Information

UAE and GCC Characteristics

• Commodity dependency: GCC economies, including the UAE, are highly exposed to fluctuations in oil prices, which can lead to procyclical systemic risk.
• Fixed exchange rate: The UAE Dirham is pegged to the US Dollar, limiting monetary policy independence and creating challenges in managing liquidity and credit expansion.
• Procyclical fiscal policy: Historically, fiscal policy has contributed to credit booms by increasing public spending during economic upturns.
• Real estate as a key asset class: Real estate lending constitutes a significant portion of bank credit portfolios, increasing systemic risk due to its role as a primary form of collateral.
• Underdeveloped financial markets: Limited depth in local currency fixed income and derivative markets restricts risk management capabilities for the financial sector.
• Weak corporate governance: Practices in the UAE and GCC often lack transparency and separation of corporate and personal assets, making it difficult to monitor systemic risks.

Financial Soundness Indicators

The UAE's financial soundness indicators (as of December 2012) include:

• Capital Adequacy Ratio: 17.4% (2012)
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) to Loans: 8.7%
• Return on Assets: 1.5%

These metrics are compared with other GCC countries, showing variations in financial stability and risk exposure.

Real Estate and Credit Trends

• The UAE experienced a significant real estate boom during 2003–08, driven by speculative investments and increased credit availability.
• Real estate and construction loans accounted for a large share of total bank lending.
• The boom was followed by a sharp decline in asset prices and credit growth during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Policy Recommendations

1. Institutional and Legal Framework: Establish a clear institutional framework with an authority responsible for macroprudential policy, including a mandate for systemic risk oversight and coordination across policies.
2. Macroprudential Analysis: Strengthen the analysis of macrofinancial linkages and systemic vulnerabilities.
3. Instrument Selection: Choose appropriate macroprudential instruments based on the nature of financial risks, including both ex ante and ex post measures.
4. Corporate Governance: Improve corporate governance practices to enhance transparency and reduce risk concentration.

Institutional Setup in the UAE

• The Central Bank of the UAE (CBU) regulates the banking system and has a Banking Stability Committee for macroprudential surveillance.
• The Financial Stability Unit is responsible for analyzing risks and proposing regulatory reforms.
• The CBU currently lacks authority to include non-banking financial institutions in its surveillance.
• There are no formal information-sharing arrangements between regulators, and cooperation is limited to voluntary exchanges between the CBU and the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA).
• The new UAE federal strategy assigns the central bank the responsibility to oversee financial stability, suggesting a move towards a twin peak model of financial supervision.

Conclusion

The UAE and GCC economies are particularly vulnerable to financial instability due to their reliance on hydrocarbon exports, fixed exchange rate regimes, and weak corporate governance. A robust macroprudential policy framework is essential to mitigate these risks. The document recommends institutional reforms, enhanced analysis, and the adoption of appropriate instruments to support financial stability.

Annex and References

• The Annex includes a summary of macroprudential instruments in the GCC.
• References are provided for further reading, including IMF reports and academic studies on macroprudential policy.

Boxes and Tables

• Box I.1: Highlights the 2003–08 credit and asset price boom in the GCC, the impact of the global crisis, and the policy response.
• Table I.1: Provides selected financial soundness indicators for GCC countries, including the UAE.
• Table I.2: Summarizes the institutional setup for macroprudential policies across various countries.
• Table I.3: Lists macroprudential instruments and their examples.