2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Arab_Emirates_2013_Article_IV_Consultation_44页_1mb

United Arab Emirates: 2013 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV consultation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by the IMF provides an overview of the country's economic context, recent developments, outlook, and policy discussions. The report highlights the UAE's economic recovery, the role of the non-oil sector, fiscal consolidation efforts, and the risks associated with the real estate and government-related entities (GREs) sectors.

Main Points

Economic Context

• The UAE has benefited from its safe-haven status amid regional instability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
• Political stability and high global liquidity have supported capital inflows and non-oil growth.
• The real estate market, which was impacted by the 2009 crisis, has started to recover, especially in Dubai, while Abu Dhabi's market remains sluggish.

Recent Developments

• Growth: The UAE's real GDP growth reached 4.3% in 2012, with non-oil growth driven by services, construction, and tourism.
• Oil Production: Oil production growth slowed in 2013 due to an oversupplied global oil market.
• Inflation: Inflation remained low at 0.7% in 2012, reflecting subdued rent growth and limited pass-through of international food prices.
• External Position: The current account surplus reached 17% of GDP in 2012, supported by high oil prices and strong non-oil exports.
• Fiscal Position: The non-hydrocarbon primary deficit improved to 35% of non-hydrocarbon GDP in 2012, with a fiscal surplus close to 9% of GDP.
• Banking Sector: The banking system maintains strong capital and liquidity buffers, though non-performing loans (NPLs) remain high.

Outlook and Risks

• Non-oil Growth: Expected to strengthen in 2013, reaching 4.3%, supported by real estate and tourism sectors.
• Oil Growth: Likely to slow to around 2% in 2013 due to weak global demand and ample supply.
• Inflation: May rise slightly to around 2% in 2013 as the real estate market recovers.
• External Risks:
  • A deeper-than-expected slowdown in emerging markets could lower oil prices and reduce export earnings.
  • A global re-emergence of financial stress might increase borrowing costs and affect debt rollover.
  • A prolonged decline in oil prices could erode fiscal surpluses and expose balance sheet weaknesses in GREs and private companies.

Policy Focus

• The UAE should continue fiscal consolidation to reduce long-term fiscal imbalances and improve fiscal sustainability.
• Proactive management of GRE debt maturities and transparency improvements are essential.
• The real estate sector should be managed carefully to avoid renewed risk-taking and boom-bust cycles.
• Prudential regulations for mortgage lending and loan concentration need to be swiftly implemented to prevent rapid credit expansion.
• The UAE should maintain a cautious approach to new projects and continue diversifying the economy.

Key Information

• Fiscal Consolidation: Expected to continue in 2013 at an appropriate pace, with a 2% reduction in non-hydrocarbon GDP.
• GRE Sector: Requires continued deleveraging and restructuring to address legacy issues and prevent new risks.
• Real Estate Recovery: Uneven, with Dubai seeing strong residential price increases, while Abu Dhabi lags.
• Monetary Policy: Expected to remain accommodative under the U.S. dollar peg.
• External Buffers: Central bank reserves reached $47 billion in 2012, covering 3.3 months of imports and 20% of M2, though below the IMF's recommended range.
• Fiscal Sustainability: The UAE's fiscal deficit exceeds levels consistent with intergenerational equity, necessitating continued consolidation.

Policy Discussions

A. Correcting Imbalances while Supporting the Economy

• Continued fiscal consolidation is planned for 2013, with a focus on reducing capital spending and subsidies.
• Spending on goods and services, defense, and wages is expected to increase.
• Dubai's housing program is a key component of development spending, while other capital spending is reduced.
• The fiscal stance is expected to improve further, reducing the break-even oil price to $71 in 2013.

B. Managing Old and New Risks Stemming from GREs

• GREs need to be restructured and deleveraged to reduce risks.
• Proactive management of debt maturities and improved governance are necessary.
• The UAE should avoid new risk-taking by GREs and ensure transparency.

C. Financial Sector Soundness and Financial Spillovers

• The banking system is sound but faces challenges with high NPLs and slow private-sector credit growth.
• Prudential regulations for mortgage lending and loan concentration are critical to prevent future vulnerabilities.
• The UAE's financial sector is highly interconnected with GREs, requiring safeguards against spillovers.

D. Structural and Statistical Issues

• Structural reforms are needed to support long-term economic stability and diversification.
• Continued focus on non-oil sectors is vital to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.

Conclusion

The UAE is in a phase of economic recovery, supported by strong non-oil growth and favorable oil prices. However, the country faces significant risks, particularly in the real estate and GRE sectors, which require careful management to prevent renewed cycles of risk-taking. Fiscal consolidation remains a priority to ensure long-term sustainability and reduce vulnerabilities to oil price shocks. The IMF recommends continued structural reforms, improved financial regulation, and proactive debt management to support the UAE's economic resilience.