2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_United_Arab_Emirates_Selected_Issues_36页_865kb

报告摘要

United Arab Emirates: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This report, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team on July 13, 2015, focuses on fiscal policy and SME access to finance in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It serves as background documentation for the IMF's periodic consultation with the UAE and outlines strategies to enhance fiscal sustainability and improve the financial environment for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

Main Points

1. Fiscal Sustainability and Budget Frameworks

Revenue and Expenditure Trends: General government revenue and expenditure have grown significantly since 2000, driven by hydrocarbon prices and production. In 2014, oil and gas revenue accounted for 24% of GDP, while nonhydrocarbon revenue (excluding investment income) was around 8% of GDP.
Fiscal Vulnerabilities: The UAE's fiscal stance is vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues. The fiscal break-even oil price for 2015 was estimated at $72 per barrel, highlighting the risk of permanently low oil prices.
Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: The gap between projected deficits and deficits consistent with intergenerational equity was 11% of nonhydrocarbon GDP in 2014. Under the baseline fiscal consolidation path, this gap is expected to disappear by 2020, with full consistency with intergenerational equity by 2022.
Structural Primary Balances: A structural primary balance target is proposed to ensure fiscal sustainability. The report evaluates different price rules for calculating structural resource revenues and suggests that a 5% VAT and a 10% CIT could help achieve this.

2. Sustainable Fiscal Policy Measures

Revenue Options

Corporate Income Tax (CIT): Lowering the CIT rate to 10% and broadening its base to include all companies except those in free zones could generate 4.1% of nonhydrocarbon GDP.
Value Added Tax (VAT): A 5% VAT could raise 2.7% of nonhydrocarbon GDP, providing a stable and efficient revenue source.
Excise Tax on Automobiles: A 15% ad valorem excise tax could generate 0.6% of nonhydrocarbon GDP, helping to offset some of the costs associated with road maintenance and pollution.

Expenditure Measures

Controlling Public Wages: Stabilizing wages relative to productivity and limiting growth could help reduce fiscal pressures.
Reducing Energy and Water Subsidies: Removing subsidies would reduce the fiscal burden and improve resource allocation. It could also lead to a reduction in welfare costs and enhance economic efficiency.
Lowering Capital Transfers to GREs: Reducing transfers to Government Related Entities (GREs) in Abu Dhabi could save 3.5–5.8% of nonhydrocarbon GDP by 2020.
Stabilizing Other Expenses: Controlling real-term growth of non-hydrocarbon expenses could save 3% of nonhydrocarbon GDP by 2020.

3. SME Access to Finance

Public Intervention Rationale: The UAE government intervenes in SME finance to support economic diversification and job creation.
Loans and Support Mechanisms: Various loan products and credit guarantee schemes are available to SMEs, though access remains limited.
Barriers to SME Development: High costs of starting and operating a business, and inefficiencies in credit availability and bankruptcy resolution are key challenges.
Public Sector Interventions: The UAE has implemented credit guarantee schemes, and the Khalifa Fund has been established to support SMEs.
Prudential Regulations: Credit guarantees are subject to prudential regulations to ensure financial stability and prevent moral hazard.
Regional Comparison: The UAE lags behind other MENA countries in SME access to finance. Countries like Korea have more developed medium-term budgeting frameworks that could serve as a model.

Key Information

Fiscal Sustainability: The UAE needs to reduce its reliance on hydrocarbon revenues and improve fiscal discipline to ensure intergenerational equity.
Subsidy Reforms: Subsidies for energy and water are a major fiscal burden and should be gradually phased out.
Tax Reforms: Broadening tax bases and reducing rates could help increase nonhydrocarbon revenues without deterring investment.
SME Finance: Improving access to finance for SMEs is crucial for economic diversification and growth, but requires better institutional frameworks and regulatory support.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for structural fiscal reforms to ensure long-term sustainability and intergenerational equity. It also highlights the importance of improving SME access to finance through better public support mechanisms and regulatory frameworks.