巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观策略-拉美宏观经济展望-20181220-41页_4mb

报告摘要

Latin America Economic Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an economic outlook for selected Latin American countries, focusing on four main themes: economic growth, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and balance of payments. It includes macroeconomic forecasts for 2019 and 2020, highlighting key challenges and opportunities for each country.

Main Country Highlights

Argentina: Faces a painful adjustment due to a severe recession and political uncertainty. The IMF bailout has helped stabilize the economy, but a fiscal adjustment amid an election year remains a major challenge. The country is expected to contract by 2.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019. Inflation is expected to rise sharply, and interest rates are currently very high.
Brazil: Shows signs of slow recovery from a deep recession. A market-friendly outcome in the presidential election and low interest rates are positive factors, but fiscal policy remains a critical weakness. The main risk is the failure to pass a crucial social security reform.
Chile: Has strong economic momentum due to a market-friendly government and fiscal reforms. Growth is expected to remain robust, though vulnerable to a global slowdown. The central bank is normalizing monetary policy, and copper prices are a key factor.
Colombia: Boosted by a market-friendly president, the country is showing signs of recovery. However, it remains vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. Fiscal consolidation efforts rely on tax reforms and reduced oil dependence.
Mexico: Under new administration, economic growth has been disappointing due to weak investment. While the government has pledged to implement controversial measures, the economic outlook is uncertain. The main risks include populist policies and a US slowdown.

Economic Forecasts (2017-2020)

Country	2017 GDP Growth	2018 GDP Growth	2019 GDP Growth	2020 GDP Growth
Latin America	1.6%	1.4%	2.2%	2.3%
Argentina	2.9%	-2.5%	-1.5%	2.5%
Brazil	1.1%	1.3%	3.0%	2.5%
Chile	1.5%	4.0%	3.5%	2.5%
Colombia	1.8%	3.0%	3.5%	3.8%
Mexico	2.0%	2.3%	2.0%	1.6%

Country	2017 Current Account	2018 Current Account	2019 Current Account	2020 Current Account
Latin America	-1.4%	-1.8%	-2.0%	-2.0%
Argentina	-4.9%	-4.5%	-2.0%	-0.5%
Brazil	-0.3%	-1.1%	-2.0%	-2.4%
Chile	-1.5%	-3.1%	-3.4%	-3.0%
Colombia	-3.3%	-2.8%	-2.7%	-2.9%
Mexico	-1.6%	-1.2%	-1.6%	-1.6%

Country	2017 Inflation	2018 Inflation	2019 Inflation	2020 Inflation
Latin America	6.5%	9.2%	6.4%	4.9%
Argentina	24.8%	47.0%	26.0%	13.0%
Brazil	3.0%	4.0%	3.5%	4.0%
Chile	2.3%	2.9%	2.6%	2.6%
Colombia	4.1%	3.0%	3.5%	3.5%
Mexico	6.8%	4.8%	4.0%	4.0%

Country	2017 Fiscal Balance	2018 Fiscal Balance	2019 Fiscal Balance	2020 Fiscal Balance
Latin America	-5.2%	-4.8%	-4.8%	-4.6%
Argentina	-6.0%	-5.1%	-3.7%	-3.0%
Brazil	-7.8%	-7.5%	-7.2%	-6.6%
Chile	-2.8%	-1.7%	-2.0%	-2.0%
Colombia	-3.6%	-3.1%	-2.4%	-2.3%
Mexico	-1.1%	-2.1%	-3.2%	-3.7%

Key Themes

Economic Growth

Argentina: Expected to contract by 2.5% in 2018 and 1.5% in 2019 due to fiscal adjustment and a global slowdown.
Brazil: Growth is expected to be modest, with a forecast of 3.0% in 2019 and 2.5% in 2020, contingent on passing the social security reform.
Chile: Growth is expected to slow slightly to 3.5% in 2019, but remains strong compared to other countries.
Colombia: Expected to grow at 3.5% in 2019, driven by tax reforms and increased investment.
Mexico: Growth is expected to remain around 2.0% in 2019, with a forecast of 1.6% in 2020, affected by weak investment and political uncertainty.

Monetary Policy

Argentina: High interest rates are expected to gradually decline as inflation subsides.
Brazil: The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold until H2 2019, with potential hikes in 2020.
Chile: The central bank is expected to gradually increase interest rates to reach a neutral level by mid-2020.
Colombia: The central bank is expected to initiate a normalization cycle in July 2019 with three 25bp hikes.
Mexico: The central bank is expected to maintain tight monetary policy, with interest rates likely to remain above the neutral level.

Fiscal Policy

Argentina: A major fiscal adjustment is needed, with the government relying on temporary export taxes and reduced subsidies.
Brazil: The primary deficit is expected to reach 1.7% of GDP in 2018, and a structural deficit of 2.0% of GDP in 2017. A fiscal adjustment of 3.5% of GDP is necessary.
Chile: The government is implementing tax reforms and aiming to reduce the structural fiscal deficit to 1.0% of GDP by 2022.
Colombia: Fiscal targets include a budget deficit of 3.1% of GDP in 2018, with a structural deficit of 1.9% of GDP.
Mexico: The government is under pressure to implement fiscal reforms, with the current deficit at -2.1% of GDP in 2018.

Balance of Payments

Commodity prices are strongly correlated with GDP growth in Latin America.
Lower commodity prices could hurt GDP growth, especially for countries like Brazil and Argentina.
Chile's efficient countercyclical fiscal policy may explain the weaker correlation with commodity prices.
China's trade war with the US could have a negative impact on Latin American economies due to its role as a major commodity importer.

Main Risks

Argentina: Failure to implement the fiscal adjustment program amid a severe recession and global slowdown.
Brazil: Political uncertainty and the failure to pass the social security reform.
Chile: Effects of a global slowdown on its open economy.
Colombia: Hurdles in policy implementation and fiscal reforms.
Mexico: Populist policies and a faster-than-expected slowdown in the US.

Conclusion

The economic outlook for Latin America is mixed, with some countries showing signs of recovery and others facing significant challenges. Fiscal and monetary policy adjustments are crucial for long-term stability, while commodity price fluctuations and political uncertainty pose risks to growth. The region's economic performance will be closely watched in the coming years.

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