2015全球奢侈品市场研究（英文版）_34页_9mb

Summary of the LUXURY GOODS WORLDWIDE MARKET STUDY (Fall-Winter 2015)

Core Content

The 14th edition of the Bain Luxury Study, conducted for Fondazione Altagamma, provides a comprehensive overview of the global luxury goods market in 2015. The report highlights the effects of currency fluctuations, the role of "borderless consumers," and the evolving distribution and category dynamics within the luxury industry.

Main Points

1. Global Luxury Market Overview

• The global luxury market, including 10 segments such as luxury cars, hospitality, and personal luxury goods, exceeded €1 trillion in 2015.
• Personal luxury goods, considered the "core of the core," reached over €250 billion, growing by 13% at current exchange rates but only 1%–2% in real terms.
• The overall market grew by 5% year over year, driven by luxury cars (8%), luxury hospitality (7%), and fine arts (6%).

2. Regional Highlights

• Americas: The strongest region due to a strong US dollar, with the US accounting for €79 billion of the €85 billion regional market (90% of the total). However, real growth was limited.

• Europe: Grew due to the weak euro, which made European luxury goods more affordable for global tourists, especially from China and the US. Europe became the "world's largest in-season outlet."

• Asia: Performance varied:

  • Japan remained a consistent leader.
  • South Korea achieved €11 billion in retail sales, growing by 4% despite the MERS outbreak.
  • Hong Kong and Macau saw significant declines (25% in constant exchange rates) due to government reforms and the gray market.
  • Mainland China experienced a slight contraction in local spending, though it became the third-largest global market.

• Chinese Consumers: Accounted for 31% of global luxury purchases, surpassing Japan (10%) and becoming the third-largest market after the US and Japan. They tend to travel to Europe, South Korea, and Japan, driven by currency fluctuations.

Distribution Trends

• Wholesale still dominates the market, capturing 66% of the personal luxury goods market, but retail is gaining share, growing twice as fast as wholesale at current exchange rates.
• E-commerce grew to 7% market share in 2015, nearly doubling since 2012. It is particularly strong in the Americas and skewed toward accessories and fashion.
• Airport retail grew by 29% at current exchange rates, driven by "globe-trotters" and the appeal of luxury goods in travel hubs.
• Off-price channels more than doubled in the past three years, reaching nearly €26 billion, as consumers in both mature and emerging markets seek value.
• Markdowns are increasing across more than 35% of the luxury market, especially in department stores, specialty stores, and e-commerce platforms.

Category Performance

• Accessories remained the largest category, capturing 30% of the market and growing by 3% in 2015.
• Apparel was the second-largest category (24%), growing by 2% in constant exchange rates.
• Hard luxury (22% of the market) contracted by 3%, with jewelry being the standout category, growing by 6%, and watches declining by 6% due to overstocking in Asia.
• High-end shoes outperformed leather goods, growing by 4% vs. 2% in constant exchange rates.
• Fragrances (€23 billion in retail sales) and cosmetics (€27 billion) showed moderate growth, with makeup outperforming skincare. Premium Korean brands gained popularity in Asia.

Outlook for the Future

• Luxury brands must navigate market volatility caused by currency swings and fluctuating tourist flows.
• Pricing strategies are critical, as price transparency increases and consumers seek value.
• E-commerce is becoming a disruptive force, though many brands are still struggling to adapt.
• Retail formats like monobrand and retail are still favored, but brands need to rethink their store footprint and the role of physical retail in a digital world.
• Strategic themes include:
  • Adjusting international pricing to account for currency fluctuations.
  • Balancing between luxury and value in the face of price-conscious consumers.
  • Managing inventory and markdowns across markets and channels.
  • Adapting to tourist-driven demand in mature markets.
  • Leveraging off-price and airport retail as strategic options.

Key Strategic Questions

• How to establish a right pricing model in a world of global currency fluctuations and e-commerce?
• How to rethink store footprints and the role of brick-and-mortar shops?
• How to delight local customers while managing the influx of tourists?
• How to modernize wholesale channels and maintain relevance?
• How to make tactical channels like off-price and airport retail more strategic?

Methodology

• Retail sales value is used to track revenues, representing the final price paid by consumers.
• Bottom-up and top-down estimates are used to calculate market data.
• The report is based on data from over 290 luxury-goods companies and brands, compiled into the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory.

Key Contacts

• Europe: Claudia D'Arpizio (claudia.darpizio@bain.com)
• Middle East and Africa: Federica Levato, Daniele Zito, Marc-Andre Kamel, Joëlle de Montgolfier, Serge Hoffmann, Oliver Merkel
• Americas: Darrell Rigby (darrell.rigby@bain.com)
• Asia-Pacific: Bruno Lannes (bruno.lannes@bain.com)

About the Study

• The Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study has been published annually since 2000.
• The lead author is Claudia D'Arpizio, a Bain partner in Milan.
• Fondazione Altagamma, a trade association of Italian luxury-goods manufacturers, is led by Andrea Illy, who became chairman in 2013.