2015全球奢侈品市场监控（英文版）_19页_3mb

Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor 2015 Spring Update Summary

Core Content

The Worldwide Luxury Markets Monitor 2015 Spring Update by Bain & Company provides an analysis of the global personal luxury goods market, focusing on key regions such as Europe, the Americas, and Asia Pacific. The report highlights the impact of currency fluctuations, the role of tourism, and the evolving consumer behavior, especially in China and Japan.

Main Growth Drivers and Market Trends

• Global Growth in 2014: Growth remained in line with 2013, partly due to the weak Euro in the second half of the year.
• Category Performance:
  • Accessories maintained market leadership in both absolute and relative terms.
  • Cosmetics (including skincare and make-up) outperformed fragrances.
  • Watches showed stability, while Jewelry outperformed due to solid fundamentals.
  • Womenswear experienced high growth, while menswear had mixed trends, particularly affected by the decline in Mainland China.
  • Shoes remained top performers, and leather goods showed polarization.
• 2015Q1 Real Growth: Growth was low single-digit in real terms, but boosted by the weak Euro.

Currency Fluctuations and Their Impact

• Euro Weakness: Supported inbound tourism in the Euro zone, especially from China and the US.
• Yen Devaluation: Attracted Chinese and Korean consumers, leading to increased touristic spending in Japan.
• USD Appreciation: Reduced Chinese and Korean tourists' spending in the US, with Latin American and Russian influences impacting Miami.
• CHF Appreciation: Reduced Swiss tourism, redirecting flows to Italy and France.
• CNY Appreciation: Increased Chinese purchasing power in Europe, Japan, and Korea, driving growth in those regions.

Regional Market Performance

Europe

• Western Europe: Strongly supported by Asian tourism, especially China and the US.
  • Italy started to recover, aided by tourism and EXPO 2015.
  • Spain rebounded above expectations.
  • France showed positive trends, driven by Paris.
  • UK had a soft Q1, but Chinese and Middle Eastern markets supported it.
• Eastern Europe: Still suffering, with Russia on a negative trend in 2015.
• Switzerland: Negative due to CHF appreciation.

Americas

• US: Below expectations due to strong USD, reducing Chinese and Korean tourists' spending.
• Canada: Maintained a sound trend.
• Latin America: Uneven performance, impacted by oil price decline.

Asia Pacific

• Mainland China: A transition year with lackluster performance.
• Hong Kong and Macau: Worst performers, losing support due to demonstrations, visa restrictions, and reduced gambling income.
• South Korea: Very dynamic due to Chinese flows; duty-free areas saw strong performance.
• Japan: Became a top tourist destination for Chinese; touristic spending increased significantly.
• Thailand and Singapore: Benefited from Chinese spending, with Singapore attracting VIP gamblers from Macau.

Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics

• Chinese Consumers: Fastest growing nationality in the luxury market, accounting for 30%+ of total spending in 2015.
• Tourism Impact: Touristic spending has become a significant driver, especially in Europe and Japan.
  • In Europe, ~35% of sales were made to tourists, mostly from Japan and the US.
  • In Japan, ~50% of sales were to tourists, primarily Chinese.
• Domestic Market: Increasing market penetration by global luxury brands is driving domestic growth.
• Price Awareness: Chinese consumers are highly aware of price differentials, leading to increased overseas purchases.

Pricing and Distribution Strategies

• Pricing Strategy: Brands are focusing on stabilizing price differentials, with some testing price harmonization on selected items.
• Distribution Strategy: The report questions the role of stores and suggests a shift in accountability models to better analyze value drivers.
• Strategies for Growth:
  • Shrink to grow and network strategic maintenance.
  • E-commerce is outperforming across formats.
  • Off-price channels are gaining traction, especially in Europe (10-15% of market).

Future Outlook

• 2015FY Expectations: A positive outlook is expected, with constant exchange rates likely to be highly inflated by currency effects.
• Projected Growth Rates:
  • Europe: +3 to +5%
  • Americas: +1 to +3%
  • Japan: +5 to +7%
  • Asia Pacific: -1 to +1%
  • ex Mainland China: -2 to -4%
  • Mainland China: +1 to +3%
  • ROW: +2 to +4%

Consumer Strategy

• Engagement: How to engage diverse consumer segments and generations.
• Ownership: Determining who owns the consumer (local vs. tourist).
• Accountability: Shift from geography-based to nationality-based accountability models.

Key Actors and Challenges

• Governments: Attempting to foster domestic consumption through visa restrictions, tariff cuts, and anti-daigou regulations.
• Brands: Testing price differential reduction, launching talent programs, and focusing on HENRYs (High End, New Rich, High Net Worth Individuals).
• Real Estate Developers: Turning malls into entertainment spots and introducing new travel retail formats to capture the middle class.

Conclusion

The 2015 Spring Update underscores the complexity and dynamism of the global luxury market, driven by currency fluctuations, tourism, and consumer behavior shifts. As the Chinese market continues to expand, brands must adapt their pricing and distribution strategies to maintain margins and growth in both local and touristic segments. The future of luxury consumption will depend on understanding and responding to these evolving dynamics.