20141103-杰富瑞-Prime_Time_Asia_25页_496kb

Asia Research Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive overview of market trends and investment insights across various Asian companies, focusing on financial performance, earnings guidance, and analyst ratings. It includes summaries of quarterly results, sector-specific analyses, and forecasts for the upcoming quarters, along with price targets and investment recommendations.

Key Takeaways

Global Asset Fundflow Tracker

• Fixed Income: Attracted US $44bn in the first month of 4Q, indicating increased investor interest in safer assets.
• Equities and Commodities: Experienced a net withdrawal of US$2.2bn and US$208mn respectively, showing a risk-averse stance.
• Money Markets: Recorded a marginal net injection of US$971mn, down from US$20bn in the previous week.
• Investor Behavior: There was a return to global equities after five weeks, with a significant injection of US$20bn, suggesting a shift in risk appetite.

China Macro Micro Monitor (October 2014)

• China 3Q2014 GDP: Grew at 7.3% y-y, exceeding consensus expectations.
• PMI: Manufacturing PMI remained at 51.1 in September, showing stable economic conditions.
• New Orders: Increased slightly to 5.0, compared to 4.4 in August, indicating some improvement.

China Eastern Air (670 HK)

• 3Q Earnings: Declined by 28% yoy due to FX gains and military drills.
• Positive Outlook: Improved ticket booking in 4Q and lower fuel prices are expected to support earnings.
• Rating: Hold, with a target price of HK$3.6, which is 63% more expensive than H-shares.

Tsingtao Brewery Co. (168 HK, 600600 CH)

• Weak Q3 Results: As expected, with top line growth and gross margin contraction.
• 9M Results: In line with forecasts.
• Rating: Underperform for both A and H shares, with a price target of HK$51.30 and Rmb36.60.

Dongfeng Motor Group (489 HK)

• 3Q Performance: Slightly disappointing compared to JEF expectations.
• Japanese Brands: Weak performance, with concerns over inventory issues.
• Rating: Hold, with a price target of HK$14.40.

Japan Market Insights

• BoJ's Asset Purchases: Increased to ¥80 trillion annually, driven by weak economic data post-consumption tax hike.
• Shipping Sector: NYK and K-Line beat Q2 guidance, with MOL in-line. K-Line is highlighted as a top shipping pick.
• Sony Corp (6758 JP, SNE): Sony's CEO change is seen as a move towards restructuring and selective exits. Buy rating with price targets at ¥2,410 and $24.10.
• Sharp (6753 JP): 2H guidance is viewed as too optimistic, with a likely failure to meet FY operating profit targets. Underperform rating with a price target of ¥230.
• Resona Holdings (8308 JP): Revised H1 net income up by 78.4%, with strong fee revenue. Buy rating with a price target of ¥860.
• ORIX Corporation (8591 JP): H1 results meeting indicated a target payout ratio of 20%, including capital gains. Buy rating with a price target of ¥2,300.
• Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP): 1H results beat expectations, with a 9.7% upward revision in full-year operating profit guidance. Buy rating with a price target of ¥3,100.
• Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (8616 JP): Q2 results showed strong equity trading, but weak investment trust sales. Buy rating with a price target of ¥890.
• Mazda Motor (7261 JP): 2Q results were in line with expectations, with continued product competitiveness and opportunities from the weaker yen. Buy rating with a price target of ¥3,200.
• Fuji Heavy Industries (7270 JP): Positive results driven by weaker yen and US sales. HOLD rating with a price target of ¥3,500.
• Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): 1H results showed solid growth in Xtandi and OAB franchise. Buy rating with a price target of ¥2,000.
• Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP): Lowered full-year guidance due to stagnant domestic sales and price competition. HOLD rating with a price target of ¥1,900.
• Sumitomo Corporation (8053 JP): 1H reported a net loss, with significant asset write-downs. HOLD rating with a price target of ¥1,450.
• Kobe Steel (5406 JP): Raised price target to ¥240, with improved performance from non-steel businesses. Buy rating.
• Tokuyama Corporation (4043 JP): Infringed on loan covenants due to asset write-downs, leading to a net loss. UNDERPERFORM rating with a price target of ¥100.
• GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP): Q4 results were neutral, with a price target of ¥3,000.
• Net One Systems (7518 JP): Q2 results were in line with expectations, with potential return to higher dividend payout ratio. HOLD rating with a price target of ¥660.
• SCSK Corporation (9719 JP): Q2 results were positive, showing improved productivity and profitability. Buy rating with a price target of ¥2,934.

Summary of Key Points

Investment Highlights

• Buy Recommendations: Sony Corp, Resona Holdings, ORIX Corporation, Mitsubishi Estate, Mazda Motor, GMO Payment Gateway, SCSK Corporation.
• Hold Recommendations: China Eastern Air, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Sumitomo Corporation, Fuji Heavy Industries, Sony Financial Holdings, Net One Systems.
• Underperform Recommendations: Tsingtao Brewery Co., Sharp.

Sector Analysis

• Aviation: China Eastern Air reported weaker earnings due to external factors, but expects improvement in 4Q.
• Transport & Logistics: Shipping companies like NYK and K-Line outperformed, with potential for further earnings beats in 2H.
• Technology: Sony's restructuring efforts are gaining momentum, with positive outlook on its mobile division and overall company performance.
• Financial Services: Resona and ORIX showed strong performance, with revised guidance and improved profitability.
• Pharmaceuticals: Astellas Pharma reported strong franchise growth, while Daiichi Sankyo faces uncertainty with edoxaban approval.

Market Trends

• Fixed Income: Dominated fund flows with significant inflows.
• Equities: Showed a return to investor interest after a period of withdrawal.
• Commodities: Continued net outflows, indicating a lack of investor confidence.
• Currency Impact: The weaker yen is a positive factor for Japanese exporters like Mazda and Sony.

Earnings Forecasts

• Several companies have revised their guidance upward, indicating improved performance and expectations.
• Others, like Tsingtao and Sharp, are seen as underperforming, with potential challenges ahead.

Conclusion

The document provides a detailed analysis of Asian market trends and individual company performances, emphasizing the shift in investor sentiment from fixed income to equities. It highlights key earnings updates, revised guidance, and strategic moves by companies, along with analyst ratings and price targets. The focus areas include financial services, technology, and manufacturing, with varied outlooks ranging from strong buy to underperform.