20141027-杰富瑞-PrimeTime_Asia_15页_336kb_336kb

报告摘要

Asia Research Summary

Global Overview

Equity Market Performance: Global equity markets had their best performance week in nine months, rebounding 2.9% after recent corrections. However, investors remain cautious and withdrew $8.3bn during the rebound, a significant increase from the previous week's withdrawal of $1.6bn.
Investor Behavior: Equity investors have become more selective geographically.
Fixed Income Inflows: Fixed income products remain the preferred investment instrument. Bonds attracted $11bn, up from $6.3bn, and money markets saw a net inflow of $20bn, recovering from the previous week's unwinding.
Bond Trends: All regions except Emerging Markets (EM) recorded net inflows for the second week. Corporate and government bonds continue to see steady inflows.
High Yield Bonds: For the first time in eight weeks, global high yield bonds attracted net inflow, showing a correlation of 0.51 with equity returns.
Money Market Trends: US and Developed Europe dominated the latest inflows.

Key Companies and Analysis

Coal Industry

3Q14 Coal Performance: Coal prices have fallen and are unlikely to recover soon. Shenhua and China Coal's annualized 1-3Q14 earnings are below consensus but above estimates.
Yanzhou Coal Mining: Engineered 3Q14 profits with questionable cost accounting.
Rating: Underperform across the board.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Rating: Buy
Price Target: $118.00
Key Takeaway: Alibaba is the largest e-commerce player in China with strong potential for future growth due to changing demographics and mobile development. The stock is expected to outperform with a 20% increase in the next year.

Zhuzhou CSR Times Electric Co

Rating: Hold
Price Target: HK$31.00
Key Takeaway: 3Q results surprised on better margins. The company is preferred over others in the railway sector, but the sector is near its secular peak. Earnings estimates were revised upwards.

Orient Overseas International

Rating: Buy
Price Target: HK$56.00
Key Takeaway: Q3 results were in-line with expectations. The stock is currently undervalued at 7.2x PER and 0.85x PBR. Investors are increasingly focused on 2015 performance.

New China Life Insurance

Rating: Buy
Price Target: RMB29.00
Key Takeaway: Strong accounting profit in 3Q14, driven by investment performance and a smaller reserve charge. The company is expected to deliver a strong 2014 EV uplift.

China Pacific Insurance

Rating: Buy
Price Target: HK$36.50
Key Takeaway: 3Q14 profit of RMB2.2bn, down 19% YoY, but agency business growth remained strong. Investment performance was solid with an annualized comprehensive yield of 6%.

China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd

Rating: Buy
Price Target: HK$6.40
Key Takeaway: Strong 9M NPAT growth due to higher ASPs and improved GP/ton. Valuation is considered cheap with ~8x forward PE and ~1.1x PB. Expect continued growth in 2015.

Zijin Mining Group Co Limited

Rating: Underperform
Price Target: HK$1.60
Key Takeaway: 9M NPAT growth of 10% mainly due to reduced minority interests. Gold ASPs and gross margin declined, and the company is currently overvalued.

Great Wall Motor Co Ltd

Rating: Buy
Price Target: HK$37.00
Key Takeaway: 3Q was a disappointment with lower margins. However, the company is expected to deliver strong earnings growth in 2015 due to increased motorcycle demand and easing competition.

ORIX Corporation

Rating: Buy
Price Target: ¥2,300
Key Takeaway: The stock is at a crucial level of ¥1,300/share. Concerns are overdone, and the company is expected to perform well in the next quarter.

Chugai

Rating: Hold
Price Target: ¥2,500
Key Takeaway: Delivered solid 3Q results, but the stock is fully valued. The company's full-year guidance remains unchanged due to a one-time milestone income in Q1.

JSR Corporation

Rating: Buy
Price Target: ¥2,350
Key Takeaway: Trimmed forecasts due to oil price changes and demand outlook for synthetic rubber. However, the company is still expected to benefit from an upward cycle in synthetic rubber demand.

FANUC Corp.

Rating: Hold
Price Target: ¥19,600
Key Takeaway: Strong orders in 2Q but order momentum appears to be peaking. The company is not overvalued and is expected to maintain its Hold rating.

Hino Motors

Rating: Hold
Price Target: ¥1,500
Key Takeaway: Revised earnings forecast upwards but maintain Hold rating. Recovery pace is slow in Thailand and Indonesia, and the company faces high upfront costs for new plant development.

Hero MotoCorp

Rating: Buy
Price Target: INR3,630.00
Key Takeaway: Hero is best positioned to benefit from a recovery in two-wheeler demand. The company's recent performance shows an upward revision in price target due to improved motorcycle demand.

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Rating: Hold
Price Target: INR1,065.00
Key Takeaway: Strong quarter with improved non-CV loans and HCV disbursement. Fee income surprised positively. Retain Hold rating with a revised price target.

CapitaCommercial Trust

Rating: Buy
Price Target: SGD1.78
Key Takeaway: CapitaGreen is on track to achieve 50% occupancy by year-end. Leasing trends are healthy, and the company is expected to maintain its Buy rating.

Bank Mandiri

Rating: Buy
Price Target: IDR12,400.00
Key Takeaway: 3Q14 results were good but slightly below expectations. Loan growth slowed, but NIMs held up. Retain Buy rating with a revised price target.

Korea Gas

Rating: Buy
Price Target: KRW90,000
Key Takeaway: Concerns over write-off risks in overseas projects were eased. The company is expected to see a modest share price rise.

Greencross

Rating: Buy
Price Target: KRW160,000
Key Takeaway: Solid 3Q14 earnings expected. The company has completed Phase 3 clinical trials for IVIG SN and plans to apply for FDA approval in 2015.

Dong-A Science Technology

Rating: Buy
Price Target: KRW135,000
Key Takeaway: Despite sluggish prescription drug sales, the company is expected to see a modest share price rise due to EM-bound exports and royalties from Sivextro.

CKD Pharmaceutical

Rating: Buy
Price Target: KRW90,000
Key Takeaway: The company is expected to benefit from milestone payments from Zafgen for Beloranib. Clinical trials are progressing, and the company maintains a Buy rating.

Hyundai Motor Co

Rating: Buy
Price Target: KRW260,000
Key Takeaway: The stock is in oversold territory. Strong 3Q14 operating profit and positive outlook for 2015. Plans to increase dividend payout and sales promotions support the Buy rating.

Coway

Rating: Buy
Price Target: KRW105,000
Key Takeaway: Weak 3Q14 results, but earnings growth is expected to resume in 4Q. Improved cash management and healthy earnings growth support the Buy rating.

Malaysia Airports

Rating: Sell
Price Target: MYR6.69
Key Takeaway: Acquiring ISG for EUR285m, which is expected to be earnings dilutive. The company's performance and future outlook are not favorable.

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