20150309-杰富瑞-Today_At_A_Glance_12页_314kb_314kb

Asia Research Summary

Core Content

The document provides a comprehensive summary of market trends and investment analysis across various sectors and regions, focusing on Asia and global equities. It includes updates on equity inflows, company-specific insights, and analyst recommendations.

Key Takeaways

Global Equity Trends

• Mutual Fund/ETF Inflows: Mutual fund/ETF investors were net buyers in global equities, injecting US$6.5bn over the past week (26 Feb to 4 Mar), lifting cumulative net inflows into positive territory for the first time this year.
• Regional Highlights:
  • Europe: Strong equity inflow of US$5.1bn.
  • Asia Pacific: US$5.3bn (15-week high) inflow from foreign investors.
• Market Performance:
  • Germany, Japan, UK, France: Solid equity inflows.
  • India: Significant foreign investor activity.
• Sectoral Performance:
  • Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Health Care: Attracted strong inflows.

Asia-Specific Insights

China Resources Cement (HKSE: 1313 HK)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: HK$6.00 to HK$5.10 (down 15%)
• Earnings Forecast:
  • Current Year (e): HK$0.70 to HK$0.60 (down 15%)
• Analysis:
  • Expected nearly 50% decline in 1Q15 earnings due to a 15% drop in cement prices.
  • Downgrade to Hold due to negative profit outlook and revised forecasts.

Soho China Ltd. (HKSE: 410 HK)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: HK$6.50 to HK$5.50 (down 15%)
• Earnings Forecast:
  • Current Year (e): RMB 0.22 to RMB 0.16 (down 15%)
  • Next Year (e): RMB 0.16 to RMB 0.18 (up 12.5%)
• Analysis:
  • Limited bookings led to a miss in FY14 results.
  • Faces a "Hold" vs. "Sell" dilemma in 2015 due to significant cash outflows.
  • May need to cut dividends to protect balance sheet.
  • Earnings could be weak if management does not sell assets.
  • Outcome of leasing in 2015 will be key for future re-rating.

Hongkong Land (HKL SP)

• Rating: Underperform
• Price Target: $5.50 to $6.48 (up 15%)
• Analysis:
  • FY14 earnings were above consensus but operating data (negative reversion, rising vacancy) did not reflect strong demand in the HK office market.
  • High valuation risk relative to peers.
  • Maintain Underperform rating.

Noble Group (NOBL SP)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: SGD1.80 to SGD1.30 (down 27.8%)
• Earnings Forecast:
  • Current Year (e): €12.70 to €9.70 (down 22.7%)
• Analysis:
  • Likely that mtm accounting on long-term contracts boosted earnings over 2011-14.
  • Impact is manageable due to:
    1. US$1.5bn of fair value (FV) gains expected to mature within one year.
    2. Roll-on FV cushioning P&L impact.
    3. Conservative net debt levels.

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: IDR14,500.00
• Analysis:
  • Steady profitability and growth.
  • Reiterate Hold rating with a price target of IDR11,800.

Lifenet Insurance Company (7157 JP)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: ¥440
• Analysis:
  • February 2015 monthly new contracts fell 17.5% YoY.
  • Maintain Hold rating due to slowing new business profile.

Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Holdings (8630 JP)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: ¥4,620
• Analysis:
  • Announced a 15% stake in SCOR (initial 7.8%, then 15%).
  • Valuation at 10.8x (current PER) and 11.2x (forward PER).
  • PBR of 1.08x (current), indicating no significant goodwill.
  • Top pick in the non-life space.

THK Co. (6481 JP)

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: ¥2,900
• Analysis:
  • February orders were solid, with strong demand for machine tools and mounters.
  • Back-end processing of SPE-related orders dropped from January.
  • THK implied China orders would increase in March and April.

Global Research Highlights

Europe

• ECB QE Program: Commenced on 9 March 2015 with 60bn euros of monthly debt purchases.
• Inflation Influence: Germany's inflation rate is heavily influenced by a 3.4% wage increase agreement starting in April.

Financials

• Sompo Japan: Invested ¥110bn in SCOR, indicating interest in life reinsurance.
• Tokio Marine: Reported strong monthly premium numbers.
• FSA Regulations: Imposed CET1 thresholds of 7% for international banks.
• MUFG Americas: Passed stress tests at 8% CET1 under a stressed scenario.

Analyst Marketing Events

• A series of events and conferences are scheduled in March 2015 across multiple locations in Asia and the US, including:
  • Jefferies 2015 Building and Construction Summit (Boston)
  • Jefferies 2015 Antibiotic Summit (New York)
  • Jefferies 2015 TMT Conference (Miami)
  • Jefferies 2015 Healthcare REIT Summit (New York)
  • Jefferies 2015 Electronic Payments Summit (New York)
  • Jefferies 2015 Boston Immuno-Oncology Summit (Boston)
  • Conference Calls: For various companies, including VeriFone, Carrefour, etc.

Important Disclosures

• Analysts at Jefferies may receive compensation based on the firm's overall performance, including investment banking income.
• Research is updated as appropriate, but regulatory constraints may affect frequency.
• Some reports are published periodically, while others are irregular.

Company Specific Disclosures

• Zhang Xin, CEO of Soho China Ltd., is a member of Jefferies' Global Senior Advisory Board.
• Jefferies makes a market in Deutsche Telekom.