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Pure Alkali Market Update

This analysis covers the pure alkali market as of March 2024. Supply remains strong, with weekly production around 740,000 tons, leading to a near-100,000-ton surplus. Downstream demand peaked during light alkaline inventory builds, which have largely ended. Current inventory levels are at safe levels, but future cumulative inventory is expected due to persistent supply excess. The price is stable, with spot quotes between 1,900-2,000 yuan/ton. Profit margins have improved due to lower coal costs, supporting short positions. Recommendation: Hold short positions on 2405合约, targeting a 1,750 yuan/ton exit.

Glass Market Analysis

The glass market has experienced a prolonged bearish trend, with prices falling below 1,900 yuan/ton in early 2024. Recent government policies and price protection measures have helped stabilize production and sales, improving inventory levels despite stagnant demand from the construction sector. Spot prices continue to decline, and costs align closely with natural gas levels. Strategy shifts recommended: Close out short positions and consider calendar spread trades for better opportunities.

Key Findings

• Supply and Demand: Both pure alkali and glass face supply-driven pressures, with high production rates and limited demand recovery. 2024 is expected to see increased capacity, potentially worsening过剩 scenarios.
• Economic Context: Market trends influenced by economic policies and demand shockwaves, such as the "烂尾断供潮," but recent stimulus may support short-term rebound.
• Views and Risks: All views are for reference; actual investments carry risks, as detailed in the final disclaimer.

Disclaimer: All views in this report are for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Refer to the last page for full disclaimers.