20140224-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_970kb

报告摘要

China Cement Sector Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the cement sector in China, focusing on price trends, regional performance, stock valuation, and equity ratings. It outlines the current state of the market and highlights key players and their regional exposure and performance.

Main Views

Price Trends: Cement prices experienced a mild decline last week, with an overall drop of $1.34%$. The average cement price nationally was RMB344/tonne.
Regional Price Movements:
- Prices in Zhejiang, Fujian, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou, and Shaanxi declined by RMB20-50/tonne.
- In the Pearl River Delta (Guangdong), low-end clinker and cement prices rose by RMB20/tonne.
Demand Recovery: Trading volume remained thin due to the slow recovery of demand post-Lunar New Year.
YoY Price Comparison:
- Prices in Henan and Shaanxi were lower YoY, with Zhengzhou (Henan) at RMB290/tonne and Xi'an (Shaanxi) at RMB295/tonne.
- This is not favorable for Tianrui Cement and West China Cement, which have significant exposure to these regions.
Stock Performance: Cement stocks under coverage declined by $1.3%$ last week, with price changes ranging from $-0.7%$ to $-2.3%$.
Equity Ratings:
- Anhui Conch, ONBM, BBMG, and CR Cement are rated "BUY".
- Shanshui Cement is rated "HOLD".
Valuation Metrics:
- PER (x): Ranges from 4.2 to 15.9 for 2013E, and 11.4 to 15.3 for 2014E.
- PBR (x): Ranges from 2.2 to 11.9 for 2013E, and 2.2 to 10.6 for 2014E.
- EV/EBITDA (x): Ranges from 6.1 to 12.2 for 2013E, and 7.0 to 10.4 for 2014E.
- Net Debt/Equity (%): Ranges from 80% to 306%.

Key Information

CR Cement and Anhui Conch are expected to benefit the most from the slight price increase in Guangdong, assuming it is sustainable.
Market Share by Region:
- East China: Anhui Conch has the largest market share with 54.4%.
- South Central China: CR Cement leads with 12.4%.
- North China: CNBM has the largest share with 34.2%.
- Northeast China: CNBM dominates with 63.0%.
- Southwest China: CNBM has the largest share with 48.5%.
- Northwest China: Shaanxi has the largest share with 18.1%.
Clinker Capacity Breakdown:
- Anhui Conch holds significant clinker capacity in East China (44.1%).
- CNBM has a large presence in South Central China (16.0%).
- CR Cement is a major player in Guangdong (23.8%).
- BBMG has a notable share in Jiangxi (25.4%).
- Shanshui Cement has a significant presence in Hunan (17.6%).
- West China Cement has a major share in Shaanxi (87.3%).

Summary Table

Company	Ticker	Rating	Price (HK$)	Market Cap (US$m)	PER (2012)	PER (2013E)	PER (2014E)	PBR (2012)	PBR (2013E)	PBR (2014E)	EV/EBITDA (2013E)	EV/EBITDA (2014E)	Net Debt/Equity (%)
Anhui Conch	914 HK Equity	BUY	29.90	15,232	20.5	13.3	11.4	2.96	2.66	2.22	7.8	11.9	127
ONBM	3323 HK Equity	BUY	7.66	5,302	6.2	5.3	4.9	1.10	0.92	0.77	8.6	8.8	92
BBMG	2009 HK Equity	BUY	6.01	3,809	9.8	8.7	7.8	0.91	0.81	0.72	8.8	8.0	127
CR Cement	1313 HK Equity	BUY	5.67	4,749	15.9	11.1	9.1	1.92	1.73	1.53	8.7	10.6	92
Shanshui Cement	691 HK Equity	HOLD	2.78	1,004	4.2	6.7	6.3	0.84	0.74	0.69	4.1	4.7	127
Simple Average	-	-	-	-	11.3	9.0	7.9	1.5	1.4	1.2	7.6	8.8	127
Weighted Average	-	-	-	-	15.3	10.8	9.3	2.1	1.9	1.6	8.1	10.4	92

Analysts

Wong Chi Man: Senior Analyst, contact: (852) 3698-6317, email: cmwong@chinastock.com.hk
John Mulcahy: Head of Research, contact: (852) 3698-6889, email: johnmul@chinastock.com.hk

Disclaimer

This report is for private perusal only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The information is sourced from reliable entities, but no warranty is given regarding its accuracy or completeness. The views expressed are those of the analysts and may not reflect the views of China Galaxy International Financial Holdings Limited or its subsidiaries.

Copyright

China Galaxy International Securities (Hong Kong) Co., Limited
CE No. AXM459
Room 3501-3507, 35/F, Cosco Tower, Grand Millennium Plaza
183 Queen's Road Central, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong
General line: 3698-6888

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