20180102-中国银河国际证券-China_Cement_Weekly_12页_1mb
报告摘要
China Cement Sector Summary
Core Content
The document provides an analysis of the Chinese cement sector, focusing on price trends, inventory levels, and stock performance in late December and early January. It also includes a comparison of market share and valuation metrics across key cement companies.
Key Highlights
Cement Price Trends
- National Cement Prices: Rose by 1.3% week-on-week to RMB415/tonne.
- Regional Price Increases:
- Major regions like Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Qinghai, and Xinjiang saw increases of RMB20-90/tonne.
- Henan and western Hubei experienced price decreases of RMB10-50/tonne.
- Price Catch-Up: Guangdong and Guangxi had a catch-up in prices due to relatively low price levels.
- Inventory Levels: National cement inventory level dropped to 50.31%, a multi-year low.
- Potential Correction: A potential correction in cement prices is expected in mid- to late January due to environmental inspections and downstream demand pressure.
- Government Intervention Risk: High current prices may lead to government intervention, so a moderate correction is viewed positively.
- Stock Price Expectations: A correction in share prices could provide a good entry point.
Stock Performance
- Stocks Under Coverage: Increased by 3.1% on average.
- Best Performer: CNBM [3323.HK; BUY] increased by 5.4% week-on-week.
- Weakest Performer: BBMG [2009.HK; HOLD] increased by 0.6% week-on-week.
Valuation Table
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (HK$) | Market Cap (US$m) | PER (2016) | PER (2017E) | PER (2018E) | EV/EBITDA (2016) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2018E) | Net Debt/Equity (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conch Cement | 914 HK Equity | BUY | 36.75 | 24,184 | 19.9 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 6.5 | Net cash |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | BUY | 6.99 | 4,838 | 33.0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 211 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | HOLD | 3.55 | 8,036 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 84 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 5.14 | 4,305 | 16.9 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 1.22 | 1.11 | 1.04 | 43 |
Peer Comparison Table
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | PER (2016) | PER (2017E) | PER (2018E) | PBR (2016) | PBR (2017E) | PBR (2018E) | EV/EBITDA (2016) | EV/EBITDA (2017E) | EV/EBITDA (2018E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conch Cement | 914 HK Equity | BUY | 36.75 | 24,184 | 19.9 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| CNBM | 3323 HK Equity | BUY | 6.99 | 4,838 | 33.0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 7.8 |
| BBMG | 2009 HK Equity | HOLD | 3.55 | 8,036 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 8.3 |
| CR Cement | 1313 HK Equity | BUY | 5.14 | 4,305 | 16.9 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
Market Share by Clinker Capacity (2016)
| Region | Anhui Conch | CNBM | CR Cement | Shanshui | BBMG | TCCI | Asia Cement | WCC | Huaxin-Lafarge | Sinoma Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East China | 44.9% | 40.2% | 10.9% | 51.7% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 42.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.7% |
| South Central China | 26.5% | 15.4% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 39.1% | 32.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| North China | 0.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 94.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northeast China | 0.0% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 19.9% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southwest China | 20.2% | 32.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 39.1% | 32.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Northwest China | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grand Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Main Views
- Cement prices in major regions have been rising, with some areas experiencing a catch-up in prices.
- The national cement inventory level has reached a multi-year low, indicating strong demand.
- A potential correction in cement prices is expected in mid- to late January due to environmental factors and demand pressures.
- The correction may lower the risk of government intervention and provide a good entry point for investors.
- Cement stocks showed mixed performance, with CNBM as the best performer and BBMG as the weakest.
- Valuation metrics indicate varying levels of growth and profitability expectations for the listed cement companies.
Key Information
- Environmental Inspections: Led to suspension of some construction works, affecting downstream demand.
- Inventory Levels: Very low, contributing to price increases.
- Stock Performance: CNBM outperformed others, while BBMG lagged.
- Valuation Metrics: Include PER and EV/EBITDA ratios for different years.
- Market Share: Highlights the dominance of certain companies in specific regions.
Analyst Note
- Analyst: Wong Chi Man, Head of Research
- Contact: (852) 3698-6317, cmwong@chinastock.com.hk
- Disclaimer: The report is not directed at individuals or entities in jurisdictions where it would be illegal to distribute or use it.
- Disclosure of Interests: China Galaxy International may have financial interests in the companies mentioned, including potential investment banking services and compensation from these entities.
Conclusion
The Chinese cement sector is experiencing price increases and low inventory levels, with potential for a price correction in mid- to late January. The performance of cement stocks has varied, with CNBM leading the way and BBMG trailing. Valuation metrics and market share data provide insights into the sector's current state and future outlook. Investors should consider the potential for a moderate price correction as a positive development, and may find a good entry point in the sector.
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