2008年-世界发展银行全球_Global_Economic_Prospects_2008___Technology_Diffusion_in_the_Developing_World_224页_5mb

Summary of "Global Economic Prospects: Technology Diffusion in the Developing World, 2008"

Core Content

This document, titled Global Economic Prospects: Technology Diffusion in the Developing World, 2008, is a comprehensive report by the World Bank that focuses on the role of technology in development, its diffusion patterns, and the factors influencing technological progress in developing countries. It is structured into three main chapters and an appendix, with additional supporting figures, tables, and boxes that provide detailed insights into the topic.

Main Views

1. Global Economic Outlook

• 2007 Growth: Global growth slowed to 3.6% in 2007, down from 3.9% in 2006, primarily due to weaker performance in high-income countries.
• Developing Countries: Developing countries maintained robust growth at 7.4%, similar to 2006, which helped offset the U.S. slowdown.
• 2008 Outlook: Global growth is expected to moderate to 3.3% in 2008, with the U.S. economy regaining momentum and world output projected to rise to 3.6% in 2009.
• Risks: The report highlights several risks, including a potential U.S. recession, which could lead to a sharper decline in external demand for developing countries' goods and a drop in commodity prices. It also warns of overstimulation by monetary authorities and the resulting liquidity shifts that could trigger overinvestment in developing regions.

2. Technology and Its Diffusion

• Role of Technology: Technology is a key driver of sustainable growth and poverty reduction. It contributes to welfare without necessarily affecting short-term output.
• Measurement Challenges: Traditional measures of technological achievement are inadequate, and new methods are needed to better capture the true extent of technological progress.
• Diffusion Trends:
  • Technology Penetration: The penetration of both older and newer technologies is not solely dependent on income but also on other factors like governance, infrastructure, and education.
  • Regional Differences: Technological achievement tends to level off at different income levels in different regions, and many developing countries have not reached even the 25 or 50 percent threshold of technology adoption.
  • Urban-Rural Divide: There is a significant urban-rural gap in technology access, particularly in countries like India.
  • Absorptive Capacity: Domestic absorptive capacity is a critical factor in attracting and utilizing external technology flows. It is influenced by factors such as education, governance, and regulatory environment.

3. Determinants of Technological Progress

• Drivers: The report outlines a framework for understanding the drivers of technological progress, emphasizing the importance of both external and internal factors.
• External Transmission Channels: Technology is transmitted internationally through trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the diaspora. FDI often brings process technologies and access to foreign markets.
• Internal Barriers: The main challenges to technological progress in developing countries are not access to technology but the lack of domestic skills and competencies, and rigid regulatory environments that hinder innovation and firm creation.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Openness and Skills Development: Developing countries should promote openness and invest in domestic skills to take advantage of future opportunities.
  • Absorptive Capacity: Policies should reinforce technological absorptive capacity at subnational levels and improve dissemination channels, including applied R&D agencies.
  • Infrastructure and Services: Authorities should ensure that technological services and enabling infrastructure are widely available, whether through public or private sectors.
  • Education Focus: In low-income countries and those with uneven access to secondary and tertiary education, efforts should concentrate on improving the quality and quantity of schooling.
  • Government Intervention: Governments may need to directly encourage technology diffusion and foster a culture of innovation, though caution is required to avoid overstimulation and market distortions.

Key Information

Data and Timeframe

• The cutoff date for data in the report is December 12, 2007.
• The report includes a wide range of data, including GDP, FDI, commodity prices, inflation, poverty rates, and technological indicators.

Technology Indicators

• Technological Achievement Index: Constructed using various indicators such as patent activity, logistics performance, and access to technology.
• Absorptive Capacity Index: Reflects the ability of countries to absorb and utilize technology, based on factors like education, governance, and R&D investment.
• Technology Penetration: The report notes that most technologies fail to penetrate deeply into developing economies, with exceptions in certain sectors and regions.

Regional Highlights

• East Asia and the Pacific: Strong growth in 2007, with improving performance and stabilization of inflation.
• Europe and Central Asia: Mixed growth outcomes, with varying external positions and a slowdown in 2009.
• Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth eased in 2007, but inflation has declined over the past 15 years.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Oil revenue has supported growth, and equities rebounded after the 2007 slump.
• South Asia: Growth slowed due to currency appreciation and increased inflation.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Growth accelerated, particularly in oil-exporting countries, but many still operate in low-tech environments.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Technology Gap: Despite progress, the technology gap between developing and high-income countries remains significant.
• Financial Vulnerability: Developing countries with large current account deficits, pegged exchange rates, and rising domestic inflation are particularly vulnerable to financial market adjustments.
• Governance and Education: Poor governance and low literacy rates are major obstacles to technological progress in developing countries.
• Innovation and R&D: R&D intensities have increased in many developing countries, but the quality and independence of oversight systems are critical for success.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of technology in driving economic growth and reducing poverty in developing countries. It highlights that while developing countries have made progress in adopting and using technology, challenges such as weak domestic skills, poor governance, and rigid regulations continue to hinder deeper technological diffusion. The report calls for targeted policies to enhance technological absorptive capacity, improve education and infrastructure, and manage financial risks effectively.