2001年-世界发展银行全球_Weightless_Machines_and_Costless_Knowledge___An_Empirical_Analysis_of_Trade_and_Technology_Diffusion_36页_1mb

Summary of "Weightless Machines and Costless Knowledge: An Empirical Analysis of Trade and Technology Diffusion"

Core Content

This working paper investigates the relationship between the importation of technology-intensive machines and productivity growth in developing and transition economies, particularly those in Central and Eastern Europe and the Southern Mediterranean. The study emphasizes that while knowledge is 'weightless' (i.e., intangible and not physically measurable), it is embedded in technology, which is reflected in the characteristics of the machines imported.

The paper explores whether the technological complexity of imported machines influences domestic productivity, and how the choices of these machines are affected by local economic conditions such as factor prices and skills.

Main Findings

• Technology and Productivity: The technological complexity of imported machines has a significant impact on total factor productivity (TFP). The study shows that even when countries import machines from the same source (the EU), the technological level varies depending on the importing country's characteristics.

• Unit Value Index (UVI): A key tool used in the analysis is the Unit Value Index, which proxies for the technological complexity of machines. It is calculated as the ratio of the unit value of machines imported by a given country to the unit value of the same machines imported by the US. This index allows for a comparative assessment of technological levels across countries.

• Persistent Technology Gap: Despite increasing productivity, developing countries consistently import machines with lower technological complexity compared to the US. This gap persists over time, even with a 7-year lag, indicating that developing economies are not catching up in terms of the technology embodied in their imports.

• Income and Technology Correlation: The technology gap is inversely correlated with income per capita, suggesting that lower-income countries tend to import less advanced technology, which in turn hinders their long-term productivity growth and economic development.

• Import Composition and Productivity: The paper highlights that the composition of imported machines matters for productivity. Even with the same level of total investment, the type of technology embodied in the machines determines the productivity impact.

• Econometric Analysis: The study employs a system of equations to jointly estimate the impact of imported technology on productivity and the determinants of the choice of technology. This includes the influence of wage rental ratios, TFP levels, and GDP per capita on the decision to import certain types of machines.

Key Information

• Focus Countries: Six Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary) and three Southern Mediterranean countries (Egypt, Israel, Turkey) are analyzed.

• Data Sources: The study uses data from UNIDO for productivity and COMEXT-Eurostat for trade statistics. The data is available at the three-digit ISIC industry level, allowing for detailed sectoral analysis.

• Unit Value Index Construction: The UVI is calculated for six-digit harmonized codes of machines, normalized by the US unit values. This enables the comparison of technological levels across countries and industries.

• Econometric Challenges: The study acknowledges potential issues such as spurious correlation due to unobserved time-invariant factors (e.g., foreign investment share, export orientation) that may influence both technology choice and productivity.

• Implications: The findings suggest that developing countries may be trapped in a low-technology, low-growth cycle if they continue to import less advanced machines. This has important policy implications for promoting technological upgrading and economic growth through trade policies.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that the choice of imported technology significantly affects productivity growth in manufacturing. The persistent technology gap between developing and industrialized economies, as measured by the UVI, indicates that developing countries may not be fully benefiting from international trade in terms of technological diffusion. The study underscores the importance of considering the technological characteristics of imported goods when analyzing the impact of trade on economic development.