2016年-世界发展银行全球_Moldova_Trade_Study___Overview_34页_890kb

Republic of Moldova Trade Study Summary

Core Content

This report, titled Moldova Trade Study, analyzes Moldova's trade performance and competitiveness, focusing on the factors that influence its export growth and the potential of trade policy interventions to enhance its economic development. The study is part of the World Bank's broader effort to support Moldova's integration into regional and global markets, and it provides insights into the country's trade dynamics, challenges, and opportunities for growth.

Main Points

• Economic Overview: Moldova has experienced strong economic growth since 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent. However, it remains one of the poorest countries in the region, with a poverty rate of 46 percent (US$5/day) in 2012.
• Trade Integration: Moldova is a small, open economy with a trade-to-GDP ratio of 125 percent, which is higher than its regional peers. Despite this, its trade openness has not deepened significantly over the last decade.
• Export Growth: Exports have grown steadily since 2000, but at a slower pace than imports and GDP. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of export products increased from 337 to 393, and the number of export destinations expanded from 61 to 103.
• Export Survival: Moldova's export survival rates are below those of its regional peers. Only 40 percent of export relationships survive the first year, and the rate drops to 26 percent by the second year.
• FDI and Competitiveness: FDI inflows, crucial for enhancing export competitiveness, have declined since 2007 and remained low. Moldova's FDI/GDP ratio in 2013 was 3.11 percent, lower than that of other countries in the region.
• Trade Policy Options: The report evaluates various trade policy scenarios, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU and the Customs Union (CU) with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. The DCFTA is seen as a key opportunity for sustainable growth, while the CU could have negative effects due to the EU setting a Most Favored Nation (MFN) rate on Moldovan imports.
• Trade Facilitation: Trade facilitation is identified as the most promising vehicle for economic development under the DCFTA. It could explain up to two-thirds of the potential growth from full DCFTA implementation.
• Agricultural Exports: Moldova's agri-food exports are a major component of its trade. The country's agricultural competitiveness is a critical factor in accessing the EU market, which is a key trading partner.
• Free Economic Zones (FEZs): FEZs have played an important role in attracting FDI and boosting industrial production. However, performance varies across zones, and linkages with the domestic economy remain limited.
• Recommendations: The report suggests policy interventions to improve the business environment, enhance productivity, support innovation, and improve the quality and sophistication of Moldova's exports. It also emphasizes the need for reforms in customs procedures and the importance of trade facilitation in unlocking the full potential of the DCFTA.

Key Challenges

• Over-reliance on Remittances: Moldova's economy is highly dependent on remittances, making it vulnerable to external shocks.
• Export Concentration: Exports are concentrated in a few products, with wine being the top export in 2003, but now replaced by more diversified products such as coaxial cables and other electric parts.
• Low Productivity and Quality: Despite some improvements in export product quality, Moldova's exports are still considered low in terms of sophistication and international competitiveness.
• Corruption and Bureaucracy: Corruption and lengthy customs and import licensing procedures negatively affect firm productivity and competitiveness.
• FDI Attraction: FDI inflows have declined significantly since 2007, limiting Moldova's ability to integrate into regional and global value chains.

Policy Implications

• Trade Facilitation: Streamlining customs procedures and reducing trade costs are essential for enhancing export competitiveness and maximizing the benefits of the DCFTA.
• FDI and Investment: Improving the business climate and reducing corruption are more effective in attracting FDI than tax incentives.
• Agricultural Competitiveness: Enhancing agricultural productivity and compliance with EU standards is critical for accessing the EU market and improving export value.
• Sectoral Development: Free Economic Zones (FEZs) should be further developed to support industrial growth and improve linkages with the domestic economy.
• Market Diversification: Moldova should continue to diversify its export markets and products to reduce vulnerability and increase trade resilience.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of trade integration and policy reforms in driving Moldova's economic growth and export competitiveness. It underscores the need for a comprehensive strategy that includes improving the business environment, enhancing productivity, and supporting the agricultural and industrial sectors. The DCFTA with the EU is seen as a pivotal opportunity for Moldova to move towards a more sustainable and export-driven growth model.