2003年-世界发展银行全球_Georgia___An_Integrated_Trade_Development_Strategy_170页_13mb

Summary of Georgia's Integrated Trade Development Strategy

Core Content

This document outlines an Integrated Trade Development Strategy for Georgia, focusing on enhancing export-based economic growth and addressing the challenges in trade and investment. It was prepared by the World Bank in 2003, following a mission in November 2002 that interviewed 65 Georgian firms across key sectors such as agro-processing, light manufacturing, and tourism. The report aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the internal and external trade environment and suggest a medium-term program for government consideration.

Main Points

1. Economic Overview

• Georgia is a small transition economy with a population of fewer than 5 million and a per-capita GDP of about US$700.
• The economy experienced a severe collapse after independence in 1991, with output and exports falling by 70% and 90%, respectively.
• Real GDP in 2002 was only 40% of the pre-independence level, and exports accounted for less than 20% of GDP.
• Economic growth has been modest, averaging 3.7% annually since 1996-97, with reliance on domestic absorption rather than exports.

2. Poverty and Inequality

• Poverty increased from 14% in 1997 to 23% in 2001.
• Income per capita is 56% below pre-independence levels.
• Unemployment is high (16% in 2001), and many Georgians are underemployed.
• Inequality has also increased over the period.

3. Opportunities for Export Development

• Georgia is well-endowed with natural resources such as forests, minerals, and fertile agricultural lands.
• It has a relatively well-educated and low-cost labor force, which can support high-value goods and services.
• The country has significant transportation infrastructure and is located near important regional and European markets.
• It has the potential to become a regional transit hub, especially for oil-producing countries like Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

4. Constraints to Export Development

• Small and fragmented export base: Merchandise exports amount to about US$325 million (10% of GDP), mainly low-value-added products.
• High business costs: The cost of doing business is high, and investment risks are significant.
• Corruption and poor customs administration: These issues undermine the implementation of trade policies and increase informal economic activities.
• Unreliable access to finance: Financial support is limited, expensive, and requires high collateral.
• Inadequate technology and marketing knowledge: Georgian firms lack access to modern technology and effective marketing strategies.
• High transportation costs: These are driven by unofficial payments and smuggling, which undermine competitiveness.

5. Trade and Investment Performance

• FDI flows have been minimal, except for two large energy projects.
• Export markets are mainly CIS countries (45%), followed by Turkey (20%) and the EU (18%).
• Georgia is a member of the WTO since June 2000, with low import tariffs and no quantitative restrictions.
• However, the new tariff schedule (effective January 2003) increased the number of tariffs from four to 22, and the top duty rate from 12% to 30%, which is a step back from previous policies.

6. Trade Policy and Market Access

• Georgia has a liberal statutory trade regime with no significant trade barriers in world markets.
• The country has adopted free-floating exchange rate since 1998, which has remained relatively stable over the past five years.
• Despite this, Georgia's external debt burden and low international reserves (less than two months of imports) make it vulnerable to external shocks.
• The business climate is poor, with taxation and corruption being the main obstacles to doing business.

7. Transport and Trade Facilitation

• Georgia's transport infrastructure is a key factor in its potential as a regional transit hub.
• Transport costs are high due to unofficial payments and smuggling.
• The report suggests institutional development of border agencies, customs reform, and infrastructure upgrades to improve trade facilitation.

8. Finance Support Services

• The banking sector is underdeveloped and lacks sufficient financial services for export activities.
• Export finance is limited and costly, with firms requiring high collateral.
• The Government has initiated programs to increase access to finance, but they are not yet effective.

9. Agro-Food Exports

• The wine industry is a key export sector, with Georgia's wine production being competitive internationally.
• Hazelnut production is also significant, but faces challenges in terms of productivity and market access.
• The government plays a crucial role in supporting agro-business through policy and infrastructure.

10. Light Manufacturing

• The garments industry and wood processing industry are important for export growth.
• Both sectors face issues with productivity, access to inputs, and market segmentation.
• The report suggests strategic marketing and product policies, technology transfer, and firm-level efficiency improvements.

11. Mining and Mineral-Based Exports

• Georgia has significant industrial minerals and natural stone reserves.
• Downstream constraints such as technology and marketing connections with foreign investors limit the potential of these sectors.

12. Services Exports

• Information technology and engineering services are emerging sectors.
• Tourism has recovered somewhat but remains limited, with only 15% of the pre-Soviet level of foreign visitors.

13. Trade and Poverty

• To reduce poverty and improve welfare, Georgia needs to achieve higher growth rates.
• Export expansion is essential, especially in sectors where Georgia has a comparative advantage such as agro-processing.
• Rural and lower-income segments need to be integrated into domestic and external trade to improve their welfare.

Key Information

• Currency: Georgian Lari (GEL), with 1 US$ = 2.1069 GEL.
• Metric System is used.
• Fiscal Year: January 1 to December 31.
• Key sectors for export growth: Agro-processing (hazelnuts, horticulture, wine), light manufacturing (garments, wood processing), industrial minerals, information technology, and tourism.
• Main export destinations: CIS countries (45%), Turkey (20%), and the EU (18%).
• Main challenges: High business costs, corruption, poor customs and tax administration, limited access to finance, and inadequate technology and marketing knowledge.
• Proposed strategy: Institutional development, customs reform, infrastructure upgrades, and support for SMEs and rural populations.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for institutional reforms, customs and tax administration improvements, and transport infrastructure upgrades to enhance Georgia's trade and export performance. It also highlights the importance of encouraging SMEs and integrating rural populations into the export economy to reduce poverty and improve overall welfare. The strategy is based on a comprehensive analysis of both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors affecting trade and investment.