2016年-世界发展银行全球_Moldova_Trade_Study___Note_1_Analysis_of_Trade_Competitiveness_79页_4mb

Summary of MOLDOVA TRADE STUDY Note 1

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of Moldova's trade competitiveness, focusing on export performance, trade openness, diversification, quality upgrading, and the challenges that hinder the country's ability to compete effectively in international markets. It also evaluates the role of the business environment, governance, and institutional quality in shaping firm productivity and export success.

Main Points and Key Findings

1. Trade Growth and Balance

• Trade Growth: Moldova's merchandise trade has grown significantly over the last decade, with imports outpacing exports.
• Trade Balance: Despite a sharp contraction in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and reduced demand from the EU, exports have recovered. However, the trade balance has remained negative throughout the period.
• Re-exports: Re-exports have grown in importance, accounting for 33% of total exports in 2013. They are mainly untransformed goods and are associated with low value addition.
• Export Performance: Moldova's export performance has been unremarkable compared to regional peers, with exports growing at a slower rate than imports.

2. Trade Openness

• Trade-to-GDP Ratio: Moldova's trade-to-GDP ratio is 125%, significantly higher than its regional comparators, indicating high integration into the global economy.
• Outcomes-Based Indicators: The concave relationship between trade openness and per capita income is evident. Moldova's openness exceeds expectations for its income level.
• Policy-Based Indicators: The country's openness is influenced by trade policies, including tariffs and trade agreements. The DCFTA with the EU is a key opportunity to enhance trade integration.

3. Export Diversification

• Product Diversification: Moldova has diversified its export product base, with the number of exported products increasing from 274 in 2000 to 393 in 2013.
• Market Diversification: The number of export destinations has grown from 63 to 103 between 2003 and 2013, indicating a shift from CIS markets to European countries.
• Concentration of Exports: The top five products account for one-third of total exports, making the country vulnerable to external shocks.

4. Quality and Sophistication

• Quality Upgrading: Moldova's export basket has experienced a quality upgrade between 2003 and 2013, but the sophistication has not changed significantly.
• Export Quality Index: The export quality index has shown a slight increase, but it remains low compared to regional peers.
• Relative Quality: Traditional exports (e.g., wine) have seen a decline in relative quality, while new exports have shown some improvement.

5. Export Survival

• Survival Rates: Moldovan export relationships have a survival rate of less than 40% after the first year, significantly lower than comparator countries.
• Sector and Market Variability: Survival rates vary by sector and destination, with exports to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus having the highest survival rates.
• Low-Technology Products: Exports of foodstuffs and vegetables have the highest survival rates, suggesting a preference for simpler products.

6. Competitiveness Challenges

• Supply-Side Obstacles: Moldova faces challenges in access to finance, infrastructure, and backbone services.
• Corruption and Productivity: Corruption is associated with a "bribe tax," reducing firm productivity by 6-7%.
• Business Environment: Moldova's business environment is characterized by high regulatory burdens, high costs, and limited access to external funds.
• Institutional Quality: Governance and institutional quality are critical factors affecting firm productivity and competitiveness.

Policy Recommendations

• Enhance Export Diversification: Encourage a broader range of products and markets to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
• Improve Access to Finance: Facilitate access to external financing and reduce reliance on internal funds.
• Strengthen Infrastructure and Services: Invest in logistics and backbone services to support export activities.
• Promote Productivity and Innovation: Encourage productivity upgrading and innovation to enhance export value.
• Reduce Corruption: Implement measures to reduce corruption and its negative impact on firm performance.
• Leverage Trade Agreements: Utilize the DCFTA with the EU to deepen trade integration and expand market access.

Conclusion

Moldova's trade performance is shaped by a combination of high trade openness, limited export growth, and a reliance on re-exports and a few key products. While the country has diversified its exports and experienced a modest quality upgrade, its competitiveness is still constrained by institutional and regulatory challenges. Addressing these issues is crucial for achieving sustainable export growth and reducing economic vulnerability.