2017年-世界发展银行全球_Pakistan_Development_Update_November_2017___Managing_Risks_for_Sustained_Growth_92页_3mb

Pakistan Development Update: Managing Risks for Sustained Growth (November 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of Pakistan's economic performance, macroeconomic outlook, structural reforms, and human development progress during the fiscal year 2017 (FY17). It highlights the challenges and opportunities facing the country and outlines the necessary steps to ensure sustainable growth.

Main Points

1. Economic Performance in FY17

• Growth: Pakistan's GDP growth reached 5.3% in FY17, the highest in the last decade, driven by strong domestic demand, a robust services sector, and agricultural recovery.
• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit widened to 5.8% of GDP, the highest in three years, due to weak revenue mobilization and increased expenditures at both federal and provincial levels.
• Public Debt: The public debt stock decreased slightly to 68.1% of GDP, thanks to favorable currency movements, nominal GDP growth, and reduced government deposits.
• External Sector: The current account deficit widened, with imports rising and exports declining. Remittances also fell, leading to a reduction in official reserves to US$16.2 billion.
• Inflation: Inflation remained below the target of 6%, at 4.2% in FY17, supported by stable exchange rates and improved domestic supply conditions.

2. Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

• Growth Prospects: Growth is expected to continue accelerating, reaching 5.8% in FY19, but depends on managing fiscal and external imbalances.
• Key Risks:
  • A wide current account deficit and pressure on international reserves.
  • Limited exchange rate flexibility, which could further erode export competitiveness.
  • Structural fiscal imbalances and the need for continued reforms to maintain macroeconomic stability.

3. Structural Reforms

• Fiscal Reforms: The government aims to increase tax collection to 15% of GDP by 2020. Reforms are needed to broaden the tax base, improve compliance, and reduce administrative costs.
• Trade Reforms: Structural issues in export competitiveness persist. Pakistan's export basket remains concentrated, with cotton, leather, and rice making up over 70% of total exports. Reforms in trade policy, logistics, and infrastructure are essential to enhance global competitiveness.
• Investment Climate: The Doing Business (DB) rankings indicate a weak investment climate. Corruption, electricity shortages, and high tax rates are major constraints for businesses.
• Support for Startups: A growing startup ecosystem exists, particularly in major cities, but policy bottlenecks and lack of access to finance hinder growth-oriented entrepreneurship.

4. Human Development

• Progress: There has been some improvement in human development indicators since 2010, including increased school participation and better health outcomes.
• Disparities: Significant inter-provincial, income, and gender disparities remain.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty rates have declined from 64.3% in 2001 to 29.5% in 2013, but shared prosperity has slowed, indicating rising inequality.
• Stunting: Chronic stunting remains a major issue, with 44% of children under five being either severely or moderately stunted.
• Gender Issues: Women face unique challenges in entrepreneurship, with a low percentage of women in business. Most are necessity entrepreneurs in low-productivity sectors.

Key Information

Economic Drivers

• Consumption: Dominated GDP growth, accounting for nearly 8 percentage points of growth.
• Services Sector: Continued to be a key contributor to growth, with broad-based expansion.
• Agriculture: Showed a remarkable recovery, growing at 3.5% in FY17, aided by crop diversification and high support prices.

Investment Challenges

• Low Investment: The investment-to-GDP ratio remained sluggish, averaging around 15% in the past eight years.
• National Savings: Declined from 14.2% of GDP in FY11 to 13.1% in FY17, further constraining investment.
• Public Investment: Increased to 4.3% of GDP in FY17, contributing to growth.

Fiscal and External Pressures

• Fiscal Deficit: Reached 5.8% of GDP, with provinces shifting from surplus to deficit.
• Current Account Deficit: Widened due to trade and remittance issues, affecting international reserves.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen Tax Compliance: Broaden tax base and reduce compliance costs.
• Enhance Export Competitiveness: Diversify export basket and improve trade facilitation.
• Improve Investment Climate: Address corruption, electricity shortages, and tax burdens.
• Support Startups and Women Entrepreneurs: Create a conducive environment for growth-oriented businesses and increase access to finance for women-led enterprises.

Special Sections

• Jobs and Entrepreneurship: Over a third of the labor force is self-employed, but growth-oriented entrepreneurship is limited.
• Startup Ecosystem: Rapid growth in support services and access to finance, but concentrated in major cities.
• Women's Entrepreneurship: Low participation of women in business, with most operating in low-productivity sectors.
• Export Competitiveness: Export basket remains concentrated, and reforms in trade and logistics are needed to improve competitiveness.

Conclusion

Pakistan's economy showed strong growth in FY17, but vulnerabilities emerged, particularly in fiscal and external balances. Sustainable growth requires addressing these imbalances through structural reforms and improving the investment climate. Human development indicators have improved, but disparities persist. Enhancing entrepreneurship, especially among women, and improving export competitiveness are critical for inclusive and sustained economic growth.