2015年-世界发展银行全球_Pakistan_Development_Update_October_2015_68页_3mb

报告摘要

GDP Growth: Pakistan's real GDP growth was 4.24% in FY2014/15, slightly above the previous year's 4.03%, but still below the targeted 5.1%.
Growth Drivers: Consumption remained the largest contributor to GDP growth, accounting for 3 percentage points. Private consumption was driven by high remittances (US$18.7 billion).
Investment: Investment levels were low, with the share of investment in GDP at 15.1%, well below the South Asian average of 30%. Private investment fell to 9.7% of GDP, the lowest in three years.
Sectoral Performance:
- Services Sector: Contributed 2.91 percentage points to GDP growth (50% of total), with growth in finance and insurance (6.2%), general government services (9.4%), and housing services (4.0%).
- Industry Sector: Grew at 3.6%, below the target of 6.8%. The Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector only grew by 2.4%, hindered by energy shortages, weak export demand, and sector-specific issues.
- Agriculture Sector: Weak crop performance due to adverse weather and low prices led to only 1.0% growth, though livestock and fisheries showed stronger growth (4.1% and 5.8%).

Fiscal Consolidation: Continued for the second consecutive year, with the overall deficit at 5.3% of GDP, slightly higher than the revised estimates.
Deficit Reduction: The deficit decreased from 5.6% in the previous year, marking a break from the previous four years where it was above 6%.
Fiscal Efforts: The reduction was achieved through curbing the federal development budget and non-tax revenues, while tax revenues remained below target.
Provincial Spending: Provincial spending increased due to the $7^{\text{th}}$ NFC award, leading to higher resource availability and devolved responsibilities.

Total Public Debt: Stood at 64.6% of GDP at the end of FY2014/15, showing a slight decline from the previous year.
Debt Composition: Domestic debt continues to dominate, despite inflows from IFIs, the IMF program, and international bond issuance.

Current Account Deficit: Narrowed to US$2.6 billion (from US$3.1 billion), supported by high remittances (US$18.7 billion) and inflows from the Coalition Support Fund (CSF).
Trade Deficit: Wider due to increased non-oil imports (metals, food, machinery, etc.) despite lower export volumes, mainly textiles.

Exchange Rate: The PKR remained stable with a small depreciation of 3.0% against the USD.
Inflation: Declined by 4 percentage points to 4.5%, the lowest in a decade, due to falling oil prices and a stable exchange rate.
Monetary Policy: SBP eased monetary policy by cutting its policy rate by 350 bps, leading to 9.9% growth in reserve money and 13.2% in broad money supply.

Inflation Decline: Broad-based, with both food and non-food items contributing to the decline.
Inflation Drivers: Falling oil prices and stable exchange rate helped reduce inflation to 4.5%, a decade low.

Banking Sector: Strong growth driven by increased government borrowing, with improved capital adequacy ratios and profitability.
Equity Market: Saw considerable investor interest despite external and domestic turbulences.
Bond Market: Government bonds dominated, while capital markets experienced some volatility.

GDP Growth: Projected to increase to 4.5% in FY2015/16 and 4.8% in FY2016/17, supported by strong services growth and modest industry improvement.
Investment: Expected to rise due to increased fiscal space and the success of the government's reform agenda, particularly with the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects.
External Risks: Increased, with limited buffers to absorb major shocks. External demand may weaken due to slowdowns in China and the Eurozone.
Fiscal Consolidation: Targeted to reduce the deficit to 3.5% of GDP by FY2016/17, with continued efforts to phase out energy subsidies and reduce support to loss-making SOEs.

Reform Momentum: Continued, but progress is slower than anticipated.
Key Reforms: Include fiscal consolidation, energy sector reforms, and improving the investment climate.
Implementation: Requires coordination between federal and provincial governments and better alignment with the $7^{\text{th}}$ NFC resource envelope.

Constraints: Weak investment climate, low savings rate (13% of GDP), inconsistent policies, and energy shortages.
Savings Rate: Below South Asian average (23%), due to limited financial access, high consumption propensity, and low returns on financial instruments.

Fiscal Decentralization: Progress has been made, with increased provincial spending and responsibilities.
Challenges: Need for better alignment of provincial responsibilities with increased resources from the $7^{\text{th}}$ NFC award.

Growth Trends: Long-term growth potential is declining due to low investment.
Sectoral Contributions: Services sector dominates GDP growth, while industry and agriculture lag.

Sectoral Focus: Increased spending on infrastructure and social services.
Fiscal Priorities: Emphasis on fiscal consolidation and improving the business environment.

Initiatives: Government has approved and started implementation of the strategy.
Potential Impact: May help increase financial inclusion and reverse the trend of low private sector credit.

Growth Drivers: Consumption, particularly from remittances, has been the main driver of growth.
Investment Constraints: Low investment due to weak climate, low savings, and structural bottlenecks.
Fiscal Management: Fiscal consolidation is on track, but progress is slower than expected.
External Sector: Turnaround in the external sector with improved reserves and reduced deficit.
Monetary Policy: SBP eased policy to support economic activity and manage inflation.
Sectoral Trends: Services sector dominates, while industry and agriculture lag due to various constraints.
Structural Reforms: Ongoing, with focus on improving the investment climate, fiscal decentralization, and energy sector reforms.
Risks: External and internal risks remain, including weak global demand, natural disasters, and potential impacts on remittances.