2016年-世界发展银行全球_Pakistan_Development_Update_November_2016___Making_Growth_Matter_67页_4mb

报告摘要

Pakistan Development Update Summary (November 2016)

Core Content

This document provides an overview of Pakistan's economic performance, outlook, and development challenges in the fiscal year 2016 (FY16), with a focus on growth, structural reforms, and social indicators. It also includes special sections on poverty, nutrition, urban planning in Karachi, and the FY17 federal budget.

Main Points

Economic Performance in FY16

Growth: Pakistan's GDP growth reached 4.7% in FY16, the highest in eight years, driven mainly by domestic demand.
Consumption: Private consumption accounted for 92% of GDP, contributing 7 percentage points to GDP growth. Remittances reached a record high of US$19.9 billion.
Investment: Investment growth decelerated to 5.7% in FY16 from 13% in FY15, with the investment-to-GDP ratio at 15.6%, significantly lower than the South Asian average of 34% between 2010 and 2015.
Agriculture: The sector contracted by 0.2% in FY16, mainly due to poor performance in Kharif crops, especially cotton.
Industry: Industry grew by 6.8%, surpassing the growth target of 6.4%. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) grew by 4.6%, with notable growth in automobiles (16.1%), fertilizers (13.8%), and cement (10.1%).
Services: The services sector contributed 59% of GDP, growing by 5.7%, the highest in a decade. Wholesale and retail trade and finance and insurance were key contributors, while transport, storage, and communication saw a decline.

Structural Reforms and Challenges

Fiscal Consolidation: The fiscal deficit fell from 5.3% of GDP in FY15 to 4.6% in FY16, and is expected to fall further to 3.8% in FY17.
Revenue Growth: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) collected 20% more revenue in FY16, but some measures like customs duties and withholding taxes may have negative side effects.
Investment Climate: Pakistan's Ease of Doing Business (EDB) ranking has improved slightly, but remains 144th out of 190 countries. Structural reforms are needed to improve this.
Energy Sector: Despite some improvements, energy shortages continue to hinder growth and capacity utilization.

Social Indicators and Development

Poverty Reduction: Pakistan's poverty rate fell significantly, from 34.7% in FY02 to 9.3% in FY14 using the old poverty line, and to 29.5% in FY14 using the new poverty line.
Wellbeing: Despite poverty reduction, social indicators such as literacy and school enrollment have stagnated since FY10.
Nutrition: Pakistan has the third-highest stunting rate globally at 43.7%, and poor nutrition negatively impacts health and productivity.
Karachi: The city faces severe urban planning and infrastructure challenges, including informal settlements, fragmented governance, and inadequate transport, water, and sewage systems.

Key Information

Growth Drivers: Strong domestic demand, particularly private consumption, and a stable macroeconomic environment.
Challenges: Low investment, poor export competitiveness, energy shortages, and a poor business regulatory environment.
Outlook: Growth is expected to accelerate to 5% in FY17 and 5.4% in FY18, driven by CPEC projects and reforms in energy and tax.
Risks: Political uncertainty, global economic slowdown, and external shocks such as Brexit and US interest rate hikes could affect growth.
Policy Focus: The government must continue structural reforms, improve the investment climate, and invest in health, education, and nutrition to ensure sustainable growth and improved wellbeing.

Special Sections

Poverty in Pakistan: The new poverty line shows a significant decline in poverty over the last 14 years.
Nutrition Challenge: Pakistan's stunting rate is a major concern, and nutrition policies are gaining attention.
Karachi City Diagnostic: Highlights urban planning and infrastructure issues, and the need for inclusive and accountable governance.
FY17 Federal Budget: The budget aims to reduce subsidies, increase infrastructure spending, and broaden the tax base.

Conclusion

To make growth matter for Pakistanis, the government must focus on investing in human capital and addressing structural challenges in the economy. While growth and poverty reduction have been achieved, wellbeing and social development remain stagnant or declining, requiring urgent and sustained reforms. The CPEC projects and improved macroeconomic stability offer hope for future growth, but long-term success depends on consistent policy implementation and inclusive development strategies.