2007年-世界发展银行全球_Social_Protection_in_Pakistan___Managing_Household_Risks_and_Vulnerability_130页_937kb

Summary of "Social Protection in Pakistan"

Core Content

This report, prepared by the World Bank, evaluates Pakistan's social protection system and its effectiveness in addressing poverty and vulnerability. It outlines the current state of social protection programs, identifies key challenges, and proposes a policy agenda for improvement. The study is part of the Government of Pakistan's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and was informed by a comprehensive survey known as the Pakistan Safety Net Survey (PSNS).

Main Points

I. Introduction

• Pakistan has experienced strong economic growth and a decline in poverty rates, from about 33% in 2002/02 to 24-29% in 2004/05.
• Despite this progress, the country remains vulnerable to natural disasters and economic shocks, which disproportionately affect the poor.
• Social protection is recognized as a key component of the PRSP, aimed at complementing growth and promoting equity.
• The report highlights the need for a more integrated and effective social protection system.

II. Identifying the Neediest and Most At Risk

• Poverty and Vulnerability Profile:

  • Over 25% of the population is still in poverty.
  • Vulnerability estimates suggest that about 56% of the population is at risk of falling into poverty within two years.
  • Rural households, particularly those in agriculture or without land, and large households with children are most vulnerable.
  • Low human capital (health, nutrition, education) exacerbates poverty and vulnerability, contributing to intergenerational poverty.

• Shocks and Coping Strategies:

  • Major shocks include health issues, family matters, and natural disasters.
  • Nearly two-thirds of safety net recipient/applicant households experienced shocks in the three years prior to the survey.
  • Shocks cost up to 54% of annual consumption for the ultra-poor, 27% for the near-poor, and 18% for non-poor households.
  • Coping strategies include asset-based approaches (savings, credit), behavior-based strategies (reducing consumption, increasing labor supply), and reliance on public and private assistance.
  • Inefficient coping strategies can push households into deeper poverty.

• Informal Coping Mechanisms:

  • 25% of households do nothing in response to shocks.
  • Informal strategies are more common for less costly shocks, while formal strategies are used for more severe shocks.
  • Recovery from shocks is limited, with 43% of households still not recovered at the time of the survey.

III. Pakistan's Social Protection System

A. Overview of Programs

• Safety Nets:

  • Include Zakat (guzara and other), Bait-ul-Mal, and social welfare services.
  • Zakat is a religious-based program, while Bait-ul-Mal is a government-run program.
  • Social welfare services focus on persons with disabilities, child laborers, and others.

• Exit Policies:

  • Programs like Tawana aim to help the poor accumulate human capital through education and training.

• Coping with Aggregate Risks:

  • Wheat subsidy is the largest program for coping with economic shocks.
  • Earthquake relief involved a combination of cash transfers and social care services.

B. Social Security Programs

• Public Sector:

  • Includes civil service pension schemes (excluding military pensions).
  • Benefits are provided to retirees and active workers.

• Private Sector:

  • Workers Welfare Fund (WWF) and Employees' Social Security Institutions (ESSI).
  • These programs offer pensions, disability benefits, and other social security services.

C. Challenges

• Fragmentation and Duplicity:

  • Multiple programs with overlapping objectives and funding sources.
  • This leads to inefficiencies and lack of coordination.

• Low and Declining Expenditures:

  • Total social protection spending is around 1.4% of GDP, lower than in neighboring countries.
  • Safety net spending has declined from 0.4% of GDP in 1991/92 to 0.14% in 2004/05.
  • Safety nets account for only 20% of total social protection spending, much less than in other countries.

• Ineffective Targeting:

  • Many programs fail to reach the most vulnerable.
  • There is a need for better targeting mechanisms to ensure that assistance reaches those who need it most.

IV. Policy Agenda for Better Social Protection

• Short-Term Reforms:

  • Improve the effectiveness of safety net programs to reach the poor and respond to natural disasters.
  • Enhance targeting and reduce duplication and overlap.

• Long-Term Reforms:

  • Strengthen the social security system to provide broader coverage and better support for individuals against risks like old age, disability, and unemployment.

• Key Recommendations:

  • Implement proxy means testing to improve targeting.
  • Explore conditional cash transfers and school meals as effective tools for reducing poverty and vulnerability.
  • Consider phasing out inefficient subsidies like the wheat subsidy.
  • Promote microfinance to provide financial support and build resilience among the poor.

• Fiscal Considerations:

  • The government must ensure that social protection spending remains adequate and fiscally sustainable.
  • There is a need to balance the adequacy of benefits with incentives for self-sufficiency.

Key Information

• Currency Equivalent: US$1 = 59.88 PKR (as of February 1, 2006)

• Fiscal Year: July 1 – June 30

• Key Programs:

  • Zakat (guzara and other): Rs. 5.9 billion (0.10% of GDP)
  • Bait-ul-Mal: Rs. 2.5 billion (0.05% of GDP)
  • Wheat subsidy: Rs. 8 billion (0.14% of GDP)
  • Civil service pensions: Rs. 28.0 billion (0.50% of GDP)
  • Workers Welfare Fund (WWF): Rs. 2.6 billion (0.046% of GDP)
  • Employees' Social Security Institutions (ESSI): Rs. 2.1 billion (0.037% of GDP)

• Survey Data:

  • The Pakistan Safety Net Survey (PSNS) provides critical insights into the incidence and impact of shocks.
  • It includes both a nationally representative sample (PSNS I) and a purposive sample of recipients and applicants (PSNS II).

• International Comparisons:

  • Pakistan spends less on social assistance than on social security.
  • Countries like India and Sri Lanka spend significantly more on social protection (4.7% and 3.1% of GDP, respectively).
  • Conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico (Progresa) and Bangladesh (VGD) offer successful models for targeting and effectiveness.

Conclusion

• Pakistan's social protection system is fragmented, underfunded, and inefficient in reaching the poor and vulnerable.
• The report recommends a comprehensive, integrated approach to social protection, emphasizing both safety nets and social security.
• Improving targeting, reducing duplication, and ensuring adequate and sustainable funding are critical for enhancing the effectiveness of social protection programs.