2003年-世界发展银行全球_The_Impact_of_Chinas_WTO_Accession_on_East_Asia_36页_1mb

Summary of "The Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia"

Core Content

This paper analyzes the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the economies of East Asia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It explores both qualitative and quantitative channels through which China's integration into the global trading system will influence trade, investment, and economic growth in the region.

Main Channels of Impact

1. Increased Access to China's Large Market

• China has been a significant driver of growth in East Asia, with a large share of its imports coming from other East Asian countries.
• Post-WTO accession, China is expected to continue being a major market for its trading partners, leading to increased exports from East Asian developing countries to China, Japan, and the Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs).
• The reduction of non-tariff barriers and tariffs will enhance China's competitiveness and lower the cost of imports for its trading partners.

2. Improved Competitiveness

• China's WTO accession will reduce protection, lowering export prices and increasing its appeal as an efficient supplier.
• This will benefit East Asian economies through increased output and welfare, as they can source cheaper imports from China and use them as intermediate inputs.
• However, countries will need to resist protectionist pressures to fully realize these benefits.

3. Increased Competition in Third Markets

• China's accession will intensify competition in global markets, especially for labor-intensive products.
• East Asian developing countries may lose market share in Japan and the US, where China's exports are not quota-constrained.
• The elimination of quotas on Chinese textile and apparel exports to the US and EU will make China a formidable competitor.

4. Changes in Investment Patterns

• WTO accession is expected to increase foreign direct investment (FDI) in China due to lower production costs and higher returns on capital.
• This may lead to a shift in investment flows from other East Asian countries to China.
• However, technological improvements and productivity gains in China could also lead to increased demand for imports from other countries and raise investment levels in those supplying them.

5. Transparency and Predictability of Trade Policy

• China's adherence to WTO rules will increase transparency and predictability in its trade policies.
• This will benefit its trading partners by securing market access and resolving disputes in line with international standards.

6. Entry of a Major Developing Country to the WTO

• China's accession provides an opportunity for other developing economies in East Asia to reduce trade barriers and benefit from cooperation.
• It may also serve as a model for institutional design in low-income countries.

Key Quantitative Findings

• China's Benefits: China is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of WTO accession, gaining around US$10 billion or 1% of its GDP in 2001.
• Industrial and Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs): These economies will also benefit, though the gains are relatively small compared to the size of their economies and the projected growth in the region.
• Developing Countries: These countries are expected to experience small declines in real GDP and welfare due to increased competition from China, especially in the textile and apparel sectors.

Methodology

• The analysis uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (GTAP-Dyn) to assess the impact of China's WTO accession.
• The model incorporates data on trade, investment, and economic growth, and is modified to reflect duty drawbacks and specific trade commitments.
• It allows for the simulation of how changes in trade policy and productivity will affect regional economies over time.

Regional Impact Analysis

• Japan and NIEs: These economies are expected to see increases in output and exports due to their role as suppliers to China.
• Developing Countries: These countries may face challenges due to the increased competition from China in global markets.
• Investment Flows: The model suggests that while FDI is likely to increase in the NIEs, it may decline in less developed East Asian countries due to the contraction of their textile and apparel sectors.

Conclusion

• The impact of China's WTO accession on East Asia will be mixed, with some countries benefiting and others facing challenges.
• The paper emphasizes the importance of understanding the complex interlinkages between economies and the dynamic nature of trade and investment flows.
• It provides a baseline for future analysis and highlights the need for policy responses that can help East Asian countries adapt to the new trade environment.

Key Information

• Timeframe: 1997–2010
• Model Used: Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (GTAP-Dyn)
• Countries Analyzed: China, Japan, Taiwan (China), Hong Kong (China), Korea, Singapore, and other East Asian developing countries
• Main Sectors: Agriculture, manufacturing, and services
• Expected Outcomes:
  • Increased trade and investment in China and NIEs
  • Declines in real GDP and welfare for some East Asian developing countries
  • Shift in China's comparative advantage towards higher-end products
  • Increased competition in third markets for labor-intensive goods

Summary Table of Key Findings

Note: '+' indicates positive impact, '-' indicates negative impact.

References

• The paper is part of the World Bank's Policy Research Working Paper Series.
• It is authored by Elena Ianchovichina and Terrie Walmsley.
• Published in August 2003.
• The analysis draws on data from the GTAP database, IMF Balance of Payments statistics, and World Bank data.