2016年-世界发展银行全球_Assessing_the_Impact_of_WTO_Accession_on_Belarus___A_Quantitative_Evaluation_97页_3mb

Summary of "Assessing the Impact of WTO Accession on Belarus: A quantitative evaluation"

Core Content

This report evaluates the economic impact of Belarus' potential accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), focusing on the quantitative effects on the country's overall economy and individual sectors. The analysis uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate these impacts, incorporating both trade liberalization and structural reforms in business services.

Main Report Overview

Introduction and Summary of Key Results

Belarus, a small and open economy, is highly dependent on its ability to compete globally. Its major exports include mineral goods (especially refined oil and potassium chloride) and non-mineral goods such as machinery, vehicles, and transport equipment, which are primarily directed to Russia and other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) markets. However, Belarus has been losing market share in several key manufacturing sectors and is increasingly vulnerable to commodity price shocks. The report aims to analyze the economic effects of Belarus' potential WTO accession and the associated reforms to improve competitiveness.

Overview of the Model

The study uses a modern CGE model calibrated with a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and incorporates the following features:

• Perfectly competitive goods and services sectors.
• Imperfectly competitive service sectors with Increasing Returns to Scale (IRTS).
• Productivity gains from privatization and foreign direct investment (FDI) in business services.

Key Data

• Ad Valorem Equivalence of Barriers: The report provides estimates of the ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff barriers (NTBs) in the services sector.
• Share of Output by Multinational Providers: Data on the proportion of output in sectors produced by multinational service providers is included.
• Social Accounting Matrix (SAM): The SAM is used to calibrate the model for Belarus in 2011.
• Dixit-Stiglitz Elasticities: These are used to estimate the elasticity of substitution for varieties in the goods and services sectors.
• Antidumping Actions: The impact of improved legal rights under WTO membership on antidumping actions against Belarus is analyzed.
• Estimated Labor Productivity: The report estimates labor productivity by ownership type and productivity gains from privatization.
• Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs): The AVEs of NTMs are calculated for the Belarusian market.
• Tariff Changes: Belarus is expected to adopt tariff reductions aligned with Russia's WTO commitments, reducing the unweighted average tariff from 10% in 2012 to 7.8% in 2020.

Results of WTO Accession

• Aggregate Impacts (Medium Term): Belarus is expected to gain 8.2% of consumption (or 4.0% of GDP) from WTO accession, which includes both tariff reductions and structural reforms.
• Business Services Expansion: The most significant output expansion occurs in business services, with four sectors (insurance, communication, other professional services, and rail and other transportation services) expected to grow by over 9%.
• Employment Expansion: Employment increases the most in insurance, other professional services, and other financial services.
• Welfare Gains: The direct welfare gain from the expansion of service sectors is estimated at 7.2% of consumption or 3.5% of GDP.
• Indirect Benefits: Lower business service costs will lead to productivity improvements in the manufacturing sector, with significant cost reductions in other professional services and insurance.
• Export and Import Impacts: Export prices are expected to improve for five sectors due to real depreciation of the Belarusian currency. Overall, exports are projected to increase by 0.4% and imports by 1.3%.
• Sector-Specific Impacts:
  • Manufacturing Sectors: Most sectors are expected to expand slightly in the medium term and more strongly in the long run. However, some sectors like transport equipment, leather and footwear, and pulp and paper production are expected to experience declines.
  • Agriculture: Expected to see a small increase in output in the medium term and a more substantial 6.3% increase in the long term.
  • Vulnerabilities: Certain sectors will face challenges due to preference erosion in Russian and Kazakh markets and increased competition from imports.

Impact of Reductions in Common External Tariff of the Customs Union

• Tariff Reductions: Belarus will experience a gradual reduction in the unweighted average tariff from 10% in 2012 to 7.8% in 2020.
• Welfare Gains: Implementing Russia's WTO commitments is expected to result in a net gain of 1.1% of consumption (or 0.5% of GDP).
• Sector Output Impacts: Several sectors will face output declines, including transport equipment (-11%), leather and footwear (-7.8%), and pulp and paper production (-5.5%).

Impact of Reduction of Non-Discriminatory Services Barriers

• Non-Discriminatory Barriers: A 25% reduction in these barriers is expected to yield a 5.5% gain in welfare.
• Discriminatory Barriers: A 50% reduction in discriminatory barriers leads to a 1.7% gain in welfare.
• Combined Effects: The combination of these barriers' reductions, along with other reforms, is expected to lead to significant productivity and competitiveness improvements.

Impacts of Business Services Reforms in Individual Sectors

• Sector-Specific Reforms: The report examines the impacts of specific reforms in business services, including improved market access, reduced discriminatory and non-discriminatory barriers, and adoption of WTO-consistent standards.
• Productivity Gains: These reforms are expected to result in productivity improvements for the manufacturing sector due to the availability of more service varieties and lower costs.

Sensitivity Analysis

• Model Assumptions: The report explores the sensitivity of results to different assumptions, including the degree of FDI liberalization and the impact of privatization.
• Piecemeal Analysis: A sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the impacts of implementing reforms in a stepwise manner.

Conclusions

• Positive Impacts: WTO accession is expected to bring significant welfare gains to Belarus, particularly in the business services and manufacturing sectors.
• Challenges: Some sectors, especially those reliant on preferential access to Russian and Kazakh markets, may face adverse impacts due to increased competition and preference erosion.
• Policy Implications: The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive adaptation strategies to enhance competitiveness and mitigate risks.

Key Tables

Key Figures

• Figure 1: Production and Allocation of Output

Acknowledgements

The report was written under the supervision of Sebastian Eckardt and authored by Edward J. Balistreri, Zoryana Olekseyuk, and David G. Tarr. Maryna Sidarenka contributed significantly. The National Statistical Committee of Belarus (Belstat) provided data support. Insights were also gained from discussions with various Belarusian ministries and international organizations.