20240315-招银国际-Weathering_a_challenging_FY24_5页_946kb

Weibo Financial Update & Analysis

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue:

  • FY23 revenue decreased 4% YoY to US$1.76bn.
  • 4Q23 revenue grew 3% YoY (or 5% constant currency) to US$464mn vs estimates.
  • FY24 revenue is expected to be flat YoY at US$1.77bn.
  • FY24E Adjusted Net Profit forecast trimmed by 16-19% to US$451mn.
  • Current Target Price: US$18.80 (↓US$4.70 from previous).

• Non-GAAP OPM:

  • FY23: 33.6% (↑1ppt YoY).
  • FY24E: Expected ↓1.5ppt YoY to 32.1% due to increased investment.

• Revenue Growth by Vertical

  • Automobiles/Handsets: Solid growth due to new launches.
  • E-commerce: Strong growth during festivals.
  • Beauty & Personal Care: Pressured by competition.
  • FY24E Ad Revenue expected to decline 1% on constant currency basis.

Business & User Strategy

• MAUs: Reached 598mn in Dec 2023 (+2% YoY).
• Content Investment: Focused on key verticals (e.g., automotive, games) to enhance monetization.
• User Acquisition: Steps up coop with partners & optimizes social products.

Valuation & Recommendations

• Target Price: US$18.80 (vs. US$23.50 previously).
• Recommendation: BUY with safety margin due to 5x FY24E PE.
• Peer Valuation: Avg. PE 18x (Weibo trading at 5x FY24E PE).

Outlook

• Business recovery depends on macro conditions; competitive pressure from short-video apps persists.
• Enhanced shareholder return (e.g., special cash dividend) aims to support valuation.

Disclaimer
Analysts certify views reflect personal views. Trading based on forecasts carries risks; CMBIGM assumes no liability for losses.