IMF-乌兹别克斯坦共和国_金融部门评估计划金融体系稳定性评估（英）-2025.6_45页_1mb

Summary of the Financial System Stability Assessment for the Republic of Uzbekistan

Core Content

The Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) for Uzbekistan, conducted as part of the IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), evaluates the country's financial system, highlighting progress and remaining challenges. The assessment was carried out in November 2024 and February-March 2025, with findings discussed during the April 2025 Article IV Consultation.

Uzbekistan has implemented significant economic reforms since 2017, including exchange rate unification, price liberalization, privatization, and improved business environment. These reforms have led to a strong and resilient economy with an annual GDP growth rate of 5.7% between 2018 and 2023. However, the financial sector remains heavily dominated by the state, particularly through state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs), which account for two-thirds of banking system assets and half of deposits.

Main Findings

• State Dominance: The state remains a dominant player in the financial sector through ownership and directed/preferential lending programs. This leads to inefficiencies, elevated credit risk, and high fiscal costs.
• Banking Sector Growth: The banking sector has experienced rapid growth, with total assets increasing nearly ninefold since 2017. However, the sector is still bank-centric, with NBFIs and capital markets underdeveloped.
• Credit Risk Vulnerabilities: Stress tests indicate vulnerability to credit risk, particularly due to under-reporting of nonperforming loans (NPLs). Many banks, especially SOCBs, would fall below the required capital adequacy ratio (CAR) under adverse scenarios, necessitating significant recapitalization.
• Liquidity Risk: Liquidity risk appears contained, but high depositor concentration in some banks could pose challenges during liquidity shocks.
• Macroprudential Framework: The CBU has a good framework for analyzing systemic risk but faces data gaps and needs to enhance its macroprudential toolkit, including capital buffers and borrower-based measures.
• AML/CFT Regime: The anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regime is largely effective, but further improvements are needed in transparency and response to emerging risks, such as virtual assets.
• Financial Safety Nets: The crisis management framework requires further alignment with international best practices, including operationalizing the deposit insurance scheme and establishing robust emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) arrangements.

Key Policy Recommendations

1. Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing

• Recommendation 1: Augment solvency stress tests by adjusting data to address regulatory gaps.
• Recommendation 2: Conduct stress tests for currency-induced credit risk in corporate lending.
• Recommendation 3: Complement liquidity stress tests with depositor concentration analysis.

2. Macroprudential Framework and Policies

• Recommendation 4: Establish the Financial Stability Board (FSB) as an interagency body for coordination.
• Recommendation 5: Introduce bank capital buffers, strengthen borrower-based measures, and improve liquidity requirements.
• Recommendation 6: Improve public communication on systemic financial risks.

3. Banking Regulation and Supervision

• Recommendation 7: Safeguard the operational independence of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU).
• Recommendation 8: Enhance supervisory reporting and evaluation of banks' risk profiles and internal controls.
• Recommendation 9: Accelerate the implementation of consolidated supervision.
• Recommendation 10: Ensure accurate asset classification, aligning with international standards.

4. Bank Resolution, Crisis Management, and Financial Safety Net

• Recommendation 11: Develop guidelines for recovery planning and establish a supervisory framework for validation.
• Recommendation 12: Enact the Bank Resolution and Liquidation Law (BRLL), operationalize the resolution framework, and extend it beyond D-SIBs.
• Recommendation 13: Operationalize the deposit insurance framework.
• Recommendation 14: Finalize ELA arrangements, including a collateral framework and government guarantees.

5. Developmental Issues

• Recommendation 15: Expedite privatization of SOCBs.
• Recommendation 16: Gradually phase out directed and preferential lending, improve transparency, and address systemic risks through capital requirements.
• Recommendation 17: Strengthen NAPP's capacity and enforcement powers in capital markets and insurance supervision.
• Recommendation 18: Develop specific regulations for insurance companies on corporate governance, internal controls, and consumer protection.
• Recommendation 19: Expand supervision to all nonbank credit providers, including microfinance banks.
• Recommendation 20: Finalize and operationalize the payment systems oversight framework and expedite PFMI self-assessment.

6. Financial Integrity

• Recommendation 21: Strengthen the AML/CFT regime, including imposing sanctions for legal persons, increasing transparency of beneficial ownership, and addressing risks from virtual assets.

Key Institutions and Stakeholders Involved

• Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU): Leads in macroprudential oversight, stress testing, and resolution planning.
• Ministry of Economy and Finance (MoEF): Plays a central role in coordinating reforms and policy implementation.
• National Agency of Perspective Projects (NAPP): Supervises nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) and is tasked with improving regulatory frameworks.
• Deposit Guarantee Agency (DGA): Works alongside the CBU and MoEF to operationalize financial safety nets.

Conclusion

While Uzbekistan has made notable progress in financial sector development and stability, the state's continued dominance in the sector, coupled with under-reported NPLs and inefficient lending practices, poses significant risks. Continued reforms, especially in reducing state involvement, improving transparency, and strengthening regulatory and supervisory frameworks, are essential to enhance the resilience and efficiency of the financial system. The establishment of a robust financial safety net, including deposit insurance and ELA arrangements, is also critical. The CBU and MoEF are central to these efforts, with the FSB serving as a coordination mechanism for financial stability.