2022-12-11-高盛-通向2075之路_46页_3mb

Summary of the Global Economics Paper: The Path to 2075 — Slower Global Growth, But Convergence Remains Intact

Core Content

This paper outlines four major themes shaping the global economy from 2024 to 2075, based on updated long-term growth projections for 104 countries. The analysis is grounded in historical data and current trends, with a focus on the evolving dynamics between developed (DM) and emerging market (EM) economies.

Main Themes and Key Points

Theme #1: Slower Global Potential Growth, Led by Weaker Population Growth

• Global Growth Trends:
  Global potential growth has slowed from an average of 3.6% per year in the decade before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to 3.2% per year in the decade before the pandemic, and is projected to decline further to 2.8% from 2024–2029, with a gradual downward trend thereafter.

• Population Dynamics:
  Global population growth has halved over the past 50 years, from 2% to less than 1%, and is expected to fall close to zero by 2075. This demographic slowdown is a key driver of the reduced growth potential.

• Challenges of Aging Populations:
  The aging of populations in both DM and EM countries presents significant economic challenges, particularly in rising healthcare and retirement costs.

Theme #2: EM Convergence Remains Intact, Led by Asia's Powerhouses

• Growth Performance:
  Although real GDP growth has slowed in both DM and EM economies, EM growth continues to outstrip DM growth in relative terms.

• Future Economic Leaders:
  By 2050, the world’s five largest economies (in real USD) are expected to be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany.
  By 2075, with appropriate policies and institutions, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt could join the ranks of the world’s largest economies.

• Income Convergence:
  EMs are expected to continue converging towards DM income levels, contributing to a more equal distribution of global incomes over time.

Theme #3: A Decade of US Exceptionalism That Is Unlikely to Be Repeated

• US Performance:
  The US has outperformed long-term real GDP growth projections over the past decade, partly due to the strong appreciation of the US Dollar.

• Future Outlook:
  US potential growth remains significantly lower than that of large EM economies, particularly China and India. The US Dollar is currently above its PPP-based fair value, and we expect it to depreciate over the next 10 years.

• Globalization and Productivity:
  The US's exceptional performance may not be repeated due to the lower potential growth and the slowdown in globalization after the GFC.

Theme #4: Less Global Inequality, More Local Inequality

• Global Inequality Trends:
  Over the past 20 years, EM convergence has reduced global income inequality, with the global income distribution becoming more equal.

• Local Inequality Increase:
  However, income inequality within countries has risen, which poses a major challenge to globalization.

• Political Implications:
  As governments are responsible for national rather than global inequality, the global perspective is underrepresented in political decision-making, which could hinder further globalization.

Key Risks to the Global Outlook

1. Protectionism and Populist Nationalism:
   The risk of increased protectionism and a reversal of globalization due to populist movements is significant.

2. Climate Change:
   Environmental sustainability is a growing concern. While some countries have managed to de-couple economic growth from carbon emissions, achieving this globally will require political coordination and economic sacrifices.

Investment Implications

• EM Growth Outlook:
  EM economies are unlikely to continue underperforming. They are expected to grow faster than DM economies, with Asia continuing to lead.

• Policy and Institutional Factors:
  The potential for EMs to become major global economies is contingent on appropriate policies and institutions, especially in countries like Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt.

Conclusion

The paper emphasizes that while global growth is expected to slow due to demographic and productivity factors, EM convergence remains a powerful trend. The US exceptionalism of the past decade is unlikely to be repeated, and global inequality is expected to decrease while local inequality increases. These trends have significant implications for globalization, investment strategies, and economic policy.