2003年-世界发展银行全球_Turkey___Poverty_and_Coping_after_Crises_Volume_2_Background_Papers_186页_12mb

Turkey Poverty and Coping After Crises Summary

Core Content

This report, Turkey: Poverty and Coping After Crises (Volume II: Background Papers), provides an in-depth analysis of poverty and its reduction in Turkey, drawing on theoretical frameworks and case studies from various regions and countries. It explores the relationship between economic growth, inequality, and poverty, and evaluates how different policies and economic conditions affect poverty levels.

Main Theoretical Framework

• Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction: Economic growth is a key factor in reducing poverty, but its impact varies based on the distribution of income, asset ownership, state institutions, and historical, geographical, and cultural contexts.
• Inequality and Growth: High initial inequality can reduce the effectiveness of economic growth in poverty reduction. Lower inequality may increase efficiency and growth through various channels, including political stability and economic policies.
• Human and Physical Capital: Policies that reduce the gap between individuals with varying levels of education and skills are crucial for poverty reduction.
• Economic Liberalization: It is argued that liberalization can increase inequality and poverty by favoring those with initial advantages in human and physical capital.

Key Findings from Case Studies

A) Developed Countries

• United States:

  • Growth had a large antipoverty effect in the early 1970s but less so in later years due to slower growth and increased inequality.
  • Transfers were more effective in reducing poverty among the elderly than among non-elderly populations.
  • Poverty rates remained relatively stable in the 1970s and 1980s but increased significantly in the 1990s, particularly among children.

• Canada:

  • Consumption poverty declined in the 1970s and 1980s but increased in the 1990s, showing a divergence from the "rising tide" metaphor.
  • Children were disproportionately affected, with consumption poverty rates more than doubling between 1992 and 1998.

B) Developing Countries

I) Europe and Central Asia

• Transition from Planned to Market Economy:
  • Income, inequality, and poverty increased significantly during the transition period, with some countries like Russia and Ukraine experiencing extreme levels of poverty.
  • Slovenia had a poverty rate of 17.9% in 1993.
  • Hungary and Poland saw changes in their social safety nets, with significant portions of household spending dedicated to social transfers.
  • Social transfers in Hungary were well-targeted but insufficient, with only 12% of non-pension transfers going to the poorest quintile in Russia and 8% in Ukraine.

II) Sub-Saharan Africa

• Ghana:
  • Four out of seven African countries experienced increased poverty during the 1990s, while three saw declines.
  • Ghana's poverty reduction was linked to employment policies and labor market reforms, though not all regions benefited equally.
  • There is a strong link between poverty and child labor, with girls more likely to be involved in harmful child labor than boys.

III) Latin America and the Caribbean

• Poverty Trends:
  • Poverty rates declined in several countries like Brazil, Chile, and Argentina, but increased in others such as Mexico and Venezuela.
  • Poverty is influenced by demographics, education, employment, geographic factors, and ethnicity.
  • In Ecuador, rural poverty is highly heterogeneous, and poor families adapt by combining traditional and new income sources.
  • In Guatemala, child growth is negatively affected by poverty, with better parental education and household income leading to improved child health.

IV) East Asia and the Pacific

• Indonesia:

  • Poverty increased from 11.34% in 1996 to 18.9% in 1999 due to the economic crisis.
  • Households attempted to smooth consumption but were less successful in protecting their living standards.

• Philippines:

  • The economic crisis led to a 5% reduction in average living standards and a 9% increase in poverty incidence.
  • The poor were less able to smooth consumption compared to other groups.

V) South Asia

• Poverty Reduction in the 1990s:
  • Bangladesh showed improvement due to a good rice harvest despite floods.
  • Other countries in the region had mixed results, with some experiencing increases in poverty and others showing declines.
  • The report indicates that poverty reduction strategies must be tailored to local conditions and that social safety nets are critical in mitigating the effects of economic shocks.

Key Information

• Poverty Measurement:

  • Absolute poverty is measured using a $1 a day line, while relative poverty is based on a proportion of mean household spending.
  • The report emphasizes the importance of using both concepts for accurate poverty estimates.

• Social Safety Nets:

  • Social transfers play a vital role in reducing poverty, though their effectiveness varies by country.
  • In Hungary, social transfers account for 54% of average household spending and provide 38% of average income.
  • The report suggests that there is significant room for improving the targeting of these transfers.

• Policy Implications:

  • Poverty reduction strategies must consider the distribution of assets, economic policies, and the structure of the labor market.
  • The role of education, health, and employment in poverty reduction is highlighted.
  • The impact of economic liberalization on inequality and poverty is a concern, particularly in countries like Mexico.

Conclusion

The report underscores that poverty reduction is not solely dependent on economic growth but also on the distribution of resources, the quality of state institutions, and the effectiveness of social safety nets. It calls for region-specific and context-sensitive poverty reduction strategies that address both income and non-income dimensions of poverty.