2016年-PIIE彼得森国际经济研究所_Islam_Globalization_and_Economic_Performance_in_the_Middle_East_8页_297kb

Summary of "Islam, Globalization, and Economic Performance in the Middle East"

Core Content

This policy brief explores the relationship between Islam, globalization, and economic performance in the Middle East. It challenges the common narrative that Islam inherently hinders economic development and instead emphasizes the role of structural and policy factors in the region's economic outcomes.

Key Findings

• Demographic Challenges: The Middle East is expected to experience significant labor force growth over the next 15 years, with a population increase of over 25% by 2010 and 50-60% by 2020. To absorb this labor, the region would need to maintain investment rates of around 30% of GDP and income growth of 5-6% annually. However, recent performance has been weak, with per capita income growth in the 1980s being negative and slower growth in the 1990s compared to other developing regions.

• Economic Performance Relative to Other Regions: Historical data suggests that the Middle East's economic performance, measured by per capita income and total factor productivity, has not been significantly worse than other developing regions. It has been better than sub-Saharan Africa but worse than East Asia, and comparable to Latin America and South Asia.

• Role of Islam in Economic Performance: Research indicates that Islam is not a significant determinant of economic performance when controlling for economic fundamentals such as per capita income, macroeconomic stability, and corporate taxes. In fact, some studies suggest that Islam may even promote growth. However, the brief also acknowledges that Islamic practices, such as the prohibition on interest (riba) and the obligation to pay alms (zakat), may have indirect effects on economic performance, particularly through their influence on education and political stability.

• Globalization and Economic Linkages: The Middle East has been relatively isolated from global markets, with high import tariffs, limited WTO membership, and low levels of foreign direct investment (FDI). This lack of integration has hindered the region's ability to absorb labor and achieve rapid growth, unlike countries such as South Korea and Taiwan, which followed outward-oriented development strategies.

• Public Attitudes and Globalization: The Pew Global Attitudes survey highlights that Middle Eastern populations are generally more resistant to globalization. They are less supportive of closing inefficient factories, more protective of their local way of life, and less tolerant of homosexuality. These attitudes may create barriers to FDI and entrepreneurship, and are correlated with lower levels of economic openness and higher entry barriers for foreign human capital.

• Cultural and Political Dimensions: While religious identity is important in the Middle East, it is often secondary to ethnic identity. Attitudes toward foreigners and globalization are shaped by a mix of religious teachings and cultural norms. The brief warns that these attitudes could lead to self-reinforcing processes of economic stagnation and political extremism.

Conclusion

The Middle East's economic performance is not primarily driven by Islam but by structural and policy challenges. The region faces significant demographic pressures that require substantial investment and integration into global markets. While some concerns about the impact of Islam on economic development are unfounded, the brief suggests that the region's reluctance to embrace globalization and its cultural resistance to change may pose serious obstacles to growth. However, if the region can successfully navigate these challenges, it may benefit from a demographic dividend, similar to the one that contributed to East Asia's economic success. The brief ends on a cautiously optimistic note, suggesting that future economic performance may be attributed to a "disciplined Islamic ethic" in a way that is currently misinterpreted.

Key Figures and Data

• Labor Force Growth: Expected to exceed 3% annually for the next 15 years.
• Investment Requirements: Around 30% of GDP to absorb labor.
• Income Growth: 5-6% annually is needed.
• FDI in the Middle East: Roughly equivalent to that of Sweden.
• Pew Survey Findings:
  • Less than 50% of Middle Eastern respondents believe globalization is good.
  • High levels of resistance to closing inefficient factories and protecting local culture.
  • Low tolerance for homosexuality compared to other regions.
• Demographic Transition: The region may be nearing the end of its demographic transition, which could lead to a demographic dividend in the future.

References

• Noland, Marcus, and Howard Pack. 2003. Industrial Policy in an Era of Globalization. Washington: Institute for International Economics.
• Florida, Richard. 2002. The Rise of the Creative Class. New York: Basic Books.
• Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. 2003. Views of a Changing World.
• Guiso, Luigi, Paola Sapienza, and Luigi Zingales. 2002. People's Opium? Religion and Economic Activities. NBER Working Paper 9237.
• World Bank. 2003. Trade, Investment, and Development in the Middle East and North Africa.
• Kuran, Timur. Forthcoming. Islam and Mammon. Princeton: Princeton University Press.