中国的海外安全追求（英文版）_64页_3mb

China's Pursuit of Overseas Security Summary

Core Content

This report explores how China is addressing the security challenges associated with its expanding overseas economic and strategic interests. As China's global economic influence grows, so does its need to protect its citizens, investments, and infrastructure in foreign regions. The study outlines the range of security-related activities and forces China may employ, and considers the implications of these efforts for the United States and its allies.

Main Points

• China's Overseas Interests
  China's integration into the global economy has created a significant reliance on international trade routes, energy imports, and foreign investments. These interests are increasingly vulnerable to threats such as terrorism, piracy, civil conflict, and natural disasters.

• Security Threats Abroad
  Key threats to Chinese overseas interests include maritime piracy, terrorism, transnational crime, and civil wars. These non-traditional security challenges require tailored responses that differ from the conventional military threats faced by China in its near seas.

• Domestic Influences on Security Strategy
  China's historical experiences and political values shape its approach to overseas security. The country avoids the imperial model of the past and instead focuses on a more limited and cooperative strategy, influenced by its lack of international allies and its limited power projection capabilities.

• Forces Available for Overseas Security
  China employs a mix of forces to protect its interests abroad, including:

  • People's Liberation Army (PLA): The PLA is developing limited power projection capabilities, primarily for non-war missions.
  • People's Armed Police (PAP): This force is involved in protecting citizens and infrastructure in foreign regions.
  • State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs): SOEs such as COSCO and CMHI are playing a growing role in providing logistical and security support.
  • Commercial Security Contractors: These are used to supplement state and military efforts in overseas operations.
  • Host-Nation Security Forces: Nations hosting Chinese investments may provide local security forces to protect Chinese assets.

• Non-PLA Forces and Their Role
  The report argues that non-PLA forces, including paramilitary and civilian entities, are likely to be the mainstay of China's overseas security strategy. These forces are used for narrowly defined missions and may operate with limited coordination.

• China's Approach to Overseas Security
  China's strategy is characterized by a limited and selective use of military and security forces, avoiding the model of a large expeditionary military. Instead, it focuses on non-traditional missions such as disaster relief, maritime protection, and counterterrorism.

• Implications for the United States
  China's security approach may offer opportunities for cooperation with the U.S. in non-war missions, such as disaster relief and countering piracy. However, it may also raise concerns, especially in regions where China's support for host-nation security forces could conflict with U.S. interests or strategic goals.

Key Information

• Overseas Economic and Strategic Interests

  • China has over 30,000 overseas enterprises.
  • More than 100 million Chinese citizens travel abroad annually.
  • China's economic and strategic interests are increasingly concentrated in the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

• Energy Security

  • China imports over 57% of its oil, with 85% passing through the Malacca Strait.
  • Major energy suppliers include Saudi Arabia and Iran.
  • China has developed crude oil pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan to reduce reliance on maritime routes.

• Trade and Investment

  • China became the world's largest goods trader in 2013.
  • Outward direct investment (ODI) has increased significantly, surpassing FDI into China by 2015.
  • China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a key driver of its global investment strategy.

• Security Operations

  • China has conducted noncombatant evacuation operations (NEO), such as the evacuation of Chinese citizens from Libya in 2011.
  • The PLA has been involved in maritime protection, such as antipiracy missions in the Gulf of Aden.
  • China has established its first overseas naval supply port in Djibouti.

• Military and Security Capabilities

  • The PLA is developing limited power projection capabilities, focusing on nonwar missions.
  • The report avoids using terms like "expeditionary forces" and "global power projection," as they do not accurately reflect China's strategy.
  • The PLA's overseas operations are likely to involve small teams working alongside host-nation forces against nonstate actors.

• Implications for the U.S.

  • Cooperation is more likely in areas where both countries share common interests, such as maritime security and disaster relief.
  • In regions where China supports host-nation security forces, there may be limited opportunities for U.S. collaboration.
  • China's arms sales to countries like the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia could impact U.S. strategic interests in those regions.

Conclusion

China's approach to overseas security is distinct from that of past imperial powers and the United States. It is characterized by a limited use of military and security forces, a reliance on non-PLA entities, and a focus on non-traditional security threats. While this strategy may create opportunities for cooperation with the U.S., it also presents challenges, particularly in regions where China's security activities could conflict with U.S. interests. The report suggests that China's security strategy is more pragmatic and less aggressive than previously assumed, and that it is likely to remain focused on protecting its interests without engaging in large-scale military operations.