2001年-OPEC公报_OB032001_64页_2mb

OPEC Summary

Core Content

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a permanent, intergovernmental organization established in 1960 in Baghdad by five founding members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. The organization aims to coordinate and unify petroleum policies among its member countries to ensure fair and stable prices for producers, an efficient and regular supply to consumers, and a fair return on investment for the industry.

Membership and Aims

• Founding Members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela.
• Full Members: Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), UAE (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971).
• Other Members: Ecuador (joined in 1973, left in 1992), Gabon (joined in 1975, left in 1995).
• Aims: Secure fair and stable prices for producers, ensure efficient and regular supply to consumers, and provide a fair return on investment.

Key Officials

• Secretary General: Dr Ali Rodriguez Araque.
• Research Division Director: Dr Shokri M Ghanem.
• Energy Studies Department Head: Dr Rezki Lounnas.
• Data Services Department Head: Dr Muhammad A Al Tayyeb.
• Administration Head: Javad Yarjani.
• Human Resources Department Head: Dr Talal Debrab.
• PR & Information Department Head: Farouk U Muhammad, mni.
• Legal Officer: Mrs Dolores Dobarro.

Publications and Contact Information

• Website: http://www.opec.org
• Email Addresses:
  • Public Relations & Information Department: prid@opec.org
  • OPEC News Agency: opecna@opec.org
• Hard Copy Subscription: ATS 850 (€ 61.77) for 12 issues.
• Editorial Staff:
  • Editor-in-Chief: Farouk U Muhammad, mni
  • Editor: Graham Patterson
  • Assistant Editor: Philippa Webb
  • Production: Diana Lavnick
  • Design: Elfi Plakolm
  • Circulation: Vacant

Upcoming Events (May-June 2001)

• Houston, TX, USA: Petroleum Industry Site Visit (May 7-11)
• Boston, MA, USA: Upstream Petroleum Agreements (May 7-11)
• Dundee, Scotland: Contracts used in International Petroleum Development (May 7-11)
• Seoul, Korea: 13th International Conference and Exhibition on LNG (May 14-17)
• Dundee, Scotland: Risk Analysis and Decision Making in Petroleum Exploration (May 14-18)
• London, UK: Global Women Petroleum & Energy Forum (May 24-25)
• Cairo, Egypt: International Seminar on Status and Prospects for Small and Medium Sized Reactors (May 27-31)
• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia: Financing the Future (May 29-30)
• Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Asia Oil & Gas Conference (June 10-12)
• Warsaw, Poland: 8th Annual Central European Gas Conference (June 11-12)

Commentary: Kyoto Protocol and Environmental Debate

• The US President's rejection of the Kyoto Protocol has drawn criticism, but many industrialized nations, including Germany and the UK, are also not meeting their emission reduction targets.
• OPEC has long argued that the Kyoto Protocol would harm the economies of oil-exporting developing nations.
• The Protocol's implementation could lead to a significant drop in oil demand, reducing OPEC revenues and affecting economic growth in developing countries.
• A new approach to environmental policy is needed, one that is fair and realistic for all nations.

Forum: Are the World's Oil Resources Limited?

• Dr Shokri M Ghanem argues that oil is finite, but its availability is influenced by technological advancements and economic conditions.
• Technological innovations like 3D seismology and horizontal drilling have increased oil reserves and reduced costs.
• Proven oil reserves have grown significantly over the past 20 years, reaching over one trillion barrels, enough to meet global demand for nearly 40 years.
• Natural gas reserves have also increased, with a 38% rise from 1988 to 1998.

Oil Market Prospects

• OPEC expects world oil demand to grow at an annual rate of 1.5% until 2020.
• Non-OPEC production is expected to stabilize at around 49 million barrels per day.
• OPEC is projected to supply between 24 and 34 million barrels per day of the incremental demand, increasing its production from 55 to 65 million barrels per day.
• OPEC aims to maintain production levels and stabilize prices to ensure continued investment in the oil industry.

Investment and Economic Reforms

• Investment in the oil industry is crucial for meeting future demand.
• OPEC is cautious about its production policy to ensure supply security and maintain prices around $25 per barrel.
• Economic reforms have led to increased world economic growth, expected at 3.3 to 3.4% annually.
• Autonomous energy efficiency improvements are expected to be around 1% per year, but are subject to uncertainty.

Environmental Measures and Their Impact

• The Kyoto Protocol may lead to a significant decline in OPEC oil production, with estimates of a 4 to 10 million barrels per day reduction by 2010.
• This would result in revenue losses of $22bn to $63bn and a welfare loss of 1.7% to 3.5% of GDP.
• Environmental policies may have a pronounced economic impact on OPEC countries.

Conclusion

• OPEC remains optimistic about oil availability due to technological progress.
• The organization emphasizes the need for large-scale investment to meet growing demand.
• OPEC seeks to maintain market stability and ensure fair prices to support continued investment and supply security.

Advertising and Subscription

• OPEC Bulletin reaches decision-makers in OPEC member countries.
• Advertising rates and subscription details are available in the magazine.
• Orders from member countries should be sent directly to the Editor-in-Chief at the Secretariat address.
• Advertising representatives are available in different regions: North America, Europe, Middle East, and Southern Africa.