2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Pakistan_Selected_Issues_Paper_39页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of IMF Country Report No. 16/2 on Pakistan

Core Content

This report analyzes Pakistan's tax system and its potential for revenue mobilization, highlighting the challenges and opportunities for improving tax efficiency, equity, and compliance. It also discusses the importance of enhancing competitiveness and the role of female labor force participation (FLP) in achieving macroeconomic gains.

Main Views

Tax Revenue Performance

Pakistan's tax revenue-to-GDP ratio is significantly below that of other developing countries and its own tax potential.
The tax-to-GDP ratio increased from 10.1% in 2009 to 11.0% in 2015, but remains 1.4 percentage points below its peak of 12.4% in 1996.
The estimated tax capacity is 22.3% of GDP, indicating a substantial tax revenue gap of over 11% of GDP.
Tax effort (actual revenue divided by tax capacity) improved from 0.43 in 2011 to 0.49 in 2015, but is still below the average of comparator developing countries (0.64) and high-income countries (0.76).

Tax Regime and Challenges

Pakistan's tax system is complex, fragmented, and inefficient, with a heavy reliance on indirect taxes.
The composition of tax revenues is highly skewed towards indirect taxes, which account for about two-thirds of total tax revenue.
Direct taxes (CIT and PIT) make up around 37% of total tax revenue in recent years, but still lag behind other developing countries.
Provincial governments face significant challenges in collecting taxes due to limited administrative capacity and reliance on federal transfers.

Tax Buoyancy and Efficiency

Tax buoyancy, the responsiveness of tax revenues to changes in the tax base, has improved in recent years but remains volatile.
The five-year moving average of aggregate tax buoyancy increased from 0.99 in 2013 to 1.22 in 2015.
However, tax efficiency, measured as tax revenue as a percentage of GDP divided by the standard tax rate, shows limited improvement.
GST efficiency declined from 0.27 in 2003 to 0.23 in recent years, partly due to the increase in GST exemptions and limited integration of retailers into the tax base.
Direct tax efficiency remains below that of other developing countries, reflecting overgenerous tax concessions and low compliance.

Key Information

Revenue Mobilization

The government aims to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 14.5% by 2020 to improve fiscal sustainability and fund development priorities.
The Ministry of Finance has established a high-level tax reform commission, and the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has implemented reforms such as:
- Eliminating tax concessions and exemptions.
- Introducing self-assessment for personal income tax (PIT).
- Implementing differential taxation to encourage compliance.
- Integrating the National Tax Number (NTN) system with the Computerized National Identity Card (CNIC) database.
- Requiring government suppliers to be on the active taxpayer list.

Taxpayer Compliance and Administration

Informal economic activity and underreporting of formal income contribute to low compliance.
Taxpayer compliance is low, with only 982,525 active PIT filers compared to 5.7 million people earning above the tax threshold.
The number of CIT filers is also low, with only 25,551 out of over 60,000 companies registered for CIT.
The FBR and provincial administrations need to modernize and improve effectiveness through:
- Reorganizing along functional lines.
- Integrating databases and information technology.
- Implementing a risk-based auditing system.
- Increasing penalties for tax fraud and making tax evasion a criminal offense.
- Addressing "benami" transactions and improving transparency.

Tax Expenditures

The cost of tax expenditures has increased from 0.2% of GDP in 2000 to 1.9% in 2014.
Most concessions and exemptions are granted through various schemes, including Statutory Regulatory Orders (SROs), with limited transparency and parliamentary oversight.
The government has eliminated about 0.9% of GDP in tax expenditures since 2014, but further rationalization is needed to reduce distortions and improve the integrity of the tax system.

Agricultural and Property Taxation

Agricultural taxation is based on land size, with exemptions for land holdings less than 12.5 acres.
As a result, over 90% of farmers are not taxed, despite agriculture accounting for 25% of GDP and employing 45% of the workforce.
Property and service taxes under provincial jurisdiction are minimal, contributing only 0.04% and 0.6% of GDP, respectively.
A reasonable approach for agricultural taxation includes presumptive taxes on turnover and land-based tax rates adjusted according to productivity on a progressive scale.

Indirect Taxes

Indirect taxes, including GST, customs duties, and excises, are the main sources of revenue.
The FBR has implemented reforms to improve the efficiency of the GST collection system, including the integration of the NTN system with the CNIC database.
To improve indirect tax efficiency, Pakistan should:
- Integrate the GST collection system with a single statutory rate under one collection agent.
- Eliminate GST exemptions, zero-ratings, and special schemes.
- Implement ad valorem rates for excises to better address negative externalities of certain products like tobacco.

Institutional and Policy Reforms

Institutional reforms to reduce corruption and improve the business climate are crucial for boosting tax revenues.
A central fiscal cadastre and valuation agency can help modernize property taxation.
The establishment of a tax policy research and analysis unit outside the FBR is recommended to improve revenue forecasting and fiscal policymaking.

Conclusion

The objective of tax reforms is to expand the tax base and improve tax morale, not just to collect more from compliant taxpayers.
A comprehensive and front-loaded reform agenda is necessary to achieve greater efficiency and equity in the tax system.
Strengthening revenue administration, improving taxpayer compliance, and rationalizing tax expenditures are essential for unlocking Pakistan's revenue potential and enhancing economic competitiveness.

References

Baunsgaard, T., and M. Keen, 2010, "Tax Revenue and (or?) Trade Liberalization," Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 94, pp. 563-77.
Belinga, V., D. Benedek, R. de Mooji, and M. Norregaard, 2014, "Tax Buoyancy: A Conceptual and Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Paper.