2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Union_of_the_Comoros_Selected_Issues_46页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Report on the Union of the Comoros

Core Content

The report provides an analysis of key fiscal, economic, and social challenges facing the Union of the Comoros, with a focus on revenue mobilization, informality, gender inequality, and monetary policy reform. It is prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of a periodic consultation with the country and draws on comparative case studies from Liberia and Georgia to inform policy recommendations.

Main Fiscal Challenges and Policy Recommendations

Weak Domestic Revenue and Volatile Windfall Revenues

Comoros faces significant challenges in revenue mobilization, characterized by:

• Low domestic revenue levels: Tax revenue to GDP ratio remains below the average of small states (2.8% vs. 6.6%).
• High reliance on volatile windfall revenues: The country depends heavily on external financial flows (e.g., budget support, grants) to meet budget execution needs, with about 5% of GDP in 2017.
• High wage bill: Public employee compensation constitutes a large share of domestic revenues (71.7% of domestic revenues between 2013 and 2017), limiting resources for development.

Policy Recommendations:

• Broaden the tax base: Focus on improving compliance, reducing tax exemptions, and increasing transparency.
• Modernize tax administration: Improve efficiency and reduce the complexity of the tax system.
• Introduce indirect taxes: To reduce the reliance on direct taxes and increase overall tax revenue.
• Improve institutional capacity: Strengthen the capacity of tax authorities and ensure political support for reform.
• Adopt a medium-term revenue strategy: To ensure sustainable and predictable revenue growth.

Informality and Gender Inequality

Key Findings

• Informal employment dominates: In 2013, informal production units (IPUs) accounted for 79.2% of employment in Comoros.
• Informal sector and gender: Informal employment is strongly associated with female employment in Comoros and other SSA countries.
• Tax compliance issues: IPUs have very low tax ID number compliance (less than 6%), contributing to a weak tax base.
• Gender inequality and income inequality: There is a strong correlation between gender inequality and income inequality, suggesting that reducing gender disparities could also improve income distribution.

Policy Recommendations:

• Formalization of informal units: Encourage the formalization of IPUs through improved tax administration services.
• Empower women: Enhance women's participation in the formal economy and improve their access to economic opportunities.
• Simplify regulations: Reduce the cost and complexity of formalizing businesses, especially for micro and small enterprises.

Modernizing the Monetary Policy Framework

Current Challenges

• Weak fiscal credibility: Unrealistic budget targets and reliance on volatile revenues undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy.
• Limited monetary policy tools: The current monetary policy framework is not well-aligned with economic assumptions, leading to inefficiencies in managing inflation and exchange rate stability.

Policy Recommendations:

• Strengthen the central bank's role: Improve the institutional capacity and independence of the central bank.
• Implement a modern monetary policy framework: This should include a clear mandate, improved policy tools, and better coordination with fiscal policy.
• Sequencing reforms: Ensure that reforms are sequenced appropriately to maintain macroeconomic stability and support development goals.

Financial Sector Risks and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Key Issues

• Financial sector fragility: The financial system in Comoros is vulnerable, with high levels of non-performing loans and limited access to credit.
• Tax buoyancy and growth: Tax buoyancy in Comoros is weak compared to other regions, and tax revenues have not grown as significantly as in comparator countries.
• Impact of external shocks: The country is particularly vulnerable to external shocks, which can undermine fiscal and monetary stability.

Policy Recommendations:

• Improve financial sector health: Strengthen regulatory frameworks and address non-performing loans.
• Enhance monetary policy effectiveness: Align monetary policy with fiscal goals and improve the transmission mechanism.
• Strengthen institutional capacity: Develop a robust financial sector with better governance and oversight.

Key Takeaways

• Fiscal challenges are central to Comoros' development prospects, with weak revenue mobilization and volatility in external revenues limiting investment and budget execution.
• Informality is a major barrier to revenue growth and gender equality, with significant implications for the country's economic structure.
• Monetary policy needs to be modernized to support fiscal goals and improve macroeconomic stability.
• Financial sector reforms are essential to ensure the sustainability of monetary policy and reduce systemic risks.
• Cross-country lessons from Liberia and Georgia highlight the importance of comprehensive, sustainable, and politically supported tax reforms for long-term economic development.

References

• Akitoby, B. (2018). Raising Revenue Five Country Cases Illustrate how Best to Improve Tax Collection.
• Gaspar, V., & Selassie, A. A. (2017). Taxes, Debt and Development: A One-Percent Rule to Raise Revenues in Africa.
• IMF (2017). Multi-Country Report: Building Fiscal Capacity in Fragile States – Case Studies.
• OECD (2015). Examples of Successful DRM Reforms and the Role of International Co-operation.
• Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook (2018). Domestic Revenue Mobilization and Private Investment.
• World Bank (2012). Fighting Corruption in Public Services: Chronicling Georgia's Reforms.