20231115-招银国际-Rapid_overseas_business_expansion_5页_1mb

PDD Holdings Equity Research Summary

Key Recommendations

• Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating with potential for 20.7% upside from current price.
• Target Price: Lifted to US$131.80 based on DCF valuation (previously US$109.00), factoring in stronger domestic monetization and Temu business development.

Business Highlights

• Temu Overseas Expansion: Rapid growth under the "fully-entrusted" model, operating in 47 countries by October 2023. Forecasted 2023E GMV: US$16.9bn, supporting long-term revenue growth and potential valuation upgrades.
• Core Domestic Business: Robust development amid competition, driven by high paid traffic volume, "Ten-billion subsidy" monetization, and Duoduo Grocery sales growth. Anticipated 42% YoY revenue jump in 2023E for online marketing services.

Financial Projections

• Revenue Growth:
  • 2023E: 59.3% YoY increase to US$208.026bn.
  • 2024E: 27.8% YoY growth.
• Profitability:
  • Non-GAAP operating margin 24.8% in 2023E (down due to overseas investment), recovering to 27.9% in 2024E.
  • P/E ratios: 23.8x for 2023E, 17.7x for 2024E.

Analyst Certification

• Views accurately reflect personal opinions on securities, with no conflicts of interest in this report.