20260429-招银国际-联影医疗-688271.SH-Strong_2025_results_driven_by_overseas_expansion_and_domestic_share_gains_6页_758kb

United Imaging (688271 CH) 2025 Results and Outlook Summary

Core Content

United Imaging (UIH) delivered strong financial results in 2025, with revenue increasing by 34.0% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB13.8 billion, surpassing estimates by 4%. Attributable net profit also rose significantly by 48.1% YoY to RMB1.9 billion. However, in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), revenue growth slowed to 17.3% YoY, reaching RMB2.9 billion, slightly below expectations and representing 17% of the full-year forecast, down from the historical average of ~20%. As a result, the revenue growth forecast for 2026E was revised downward from 25.7% to 22.5%, although the absolute revenue estimate increased by 1.4% due to the higher base in 2025.

Key Growth Drivers

• Overseas Expansion: Overseas revenue surged by 51.4% YoY to RMB3.4 billion in 2025, driven by strong performance in North America (+56% YoY), Europe (+50% YoY), and APAC (+41% YoY). In 1Q26, overseas revenue grew by ~27% YoY to approximately RMB710 million. The growth is attributed to the continued success of high-end products such as PET/CT and MR systems, along with the expansion of the global sales and service network. Overseas service revenue increased by ~53% YoY in 2025.
• Domestic Market Share Gains: Domestic revenue grew by 29.1% YoY to RMB10.4 billion in 2025. UIH maintained the top position in new installations for CT, MR, MI, and RT systems. Notable share gains were recorded in MR (+6.4ppts), RT (+18.1ppts), and PET/CT (+13.5ppts). Despite this, the domestic market for medical imaging equipment declined by 21.1% YoY in 1Q26, which may lead to tougher comparisons in the second half of 2026.

Financial Performance

• Gross Margin (GPM): GPM declined by 1.5ppts YoY to 47.0% in 2025 and 1.3ppts YoY to 47.2% in 1Q26, primarily due to domestic value-based pricing (VBPs), tariffs, and higher liquid helium costs. However, the company's blended average selling price (ASP) increased by more than 20% YoY in 2025, driven by a stronger mix of high-end systems. Revenue from 3.0T-and-above MR systems grew over 60% YoY and accounted for over two-thirds of total MR revenue.
• Service Revenue: Service revenue increased by 26% YoY in 2025 and contributed 12.4% of total revenue, carrying a higher GPM than equipment sales.

Earnings and Valuation

• Earnings Forecasts: The company lowered its 2026-28E earnings forecasts to account for near-term GPM headwinds. Revenue is forecasted to grow at 22.5%, 20.5%, and 19.7% for FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E, respectively. Attributable net profit is expected to grow by 21.7%, 23.6%, and 23.7%, while EPS (Reported) is projected to increase to RMB2.76, RMB3.41, and RMB4.22.
• Valuation: The target price (TP) was revised to RMB161.04, based on a 9-year DCF model with a WACC of 8.1% and a terminal growth rate of 4.0%. The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 73.0 to 26.6 over the forecast period, indicating a potential value appreciation.

Financial Summary Highlights

• Revenue Growth: From RMB10,300 million in FY24A to RMB13,800 million in FY25A, and projected to reach RMB16,902 million in FY26E.
• Net Profit: From RMB1,262 million in FY24A to RMB1,870 million in FY25A, and projected to increase to RMB2,275 million in FY26E.
• EPS (Reported): From RMB1.54 in FY24A to RMB2.28 in FY25A, and projected to reach RMB2.76 in FY26E.
• Gross Margin: Expected to grow from 47.0% in FY25A to 47.9% in FY26E, with a slight decline in the short term.

Share Performance and Market Position

• Market Cap: RMB92,594.1 million.
• Shareholding Structure:
  • United Imaging Group: 20.3%
  • Shanghai Alliance Investment Ltd: 16.4%
• Share Performance: Over the past 12 months, the share price declined by 22.4% in absolute terms and 24.1% relative to the market.

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price: RMB161.04
• Previous Target Price: RMB162.29
• Up/Downside: 43.3%
• Current Price: RMB112.35

Sensitivity Analysis

• The DCF valuation is sensitive to changes in WACC and terminal growth rate. A lower terminal growth rate or higher WACC leads to a lower equity value. For example, at a 4.0% terminal growth rate and 8.1% WACC, the equity value is RMB132,724 million.

Risk and Disclaimer

• The report includes important disclosures and disclaimers, highlighting that CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and that the research is not tailored to individual investors.
• The information is based on publicly available data and may not be accurate or complete. The report is intended solely for the use of the intended recipients and should not be distributed or reproduced without prior written consent.

Conclusion

United Imaging's strong performance in 2025 was driven by overseas expansion and domestic market share gains. Despite a slight underperformance in 1Q26, the company is expected to maintain robust growth in the long term. While near-term challenges such as VBPs and liquid helium costs may affect margins, the shift toward high-end systems and services is expected to help offset these pressures. The company's long-term growth prospects remain positive, and the BUY rating is maintained with a revised target price.