2025年需求灵活性在现代电力系统中的价值研究报告_不止于维持电力平衡_40页_3mb

The Value of Demand Flexibility Summary

Core Content

The International Energy Agency (IEA) publication titled The Value of Demand Flexibility explores the critical role of demand flexibility in modern electricity systems. It highlights how demand flexibility—adjusting electricity use in response to system conditions—can significantly improve system efficiency, energy security, affordability, and emissions reduction.

Main Benefits of Demand Flexibility

• Enhances power system efficiency:
  By shifting demand away from peak periods, flexibility reduces reliance on inefficient peaking plants. It can increase system efficiency by up to 30% and enable better use of existing generation and network assets.

• Strengthens energy security:
  Demand flexibility lowers peak demand, reduces the need for fuel imports, and improves system resilience. It can also prevent outages and reduce congestion on transmission and distribution networks.

• Enhances affordability:
  Consumers can save 5–15% on electricity costs through dynamic or time-of-use tariffs. Flexibility can also reduce the cost of grid capacity by up to three times compared to building new infrastructure.

• Reduces emissions:
  By aligning consumption with periods of low-carbon generation, demand flexibility lowers the carbon intensity of the power system. It can reduce emissions by up to 70% during peak hours by shifting usage to off-peak, renewable-rich periods.

Key Trends Driving Demand Flexibility

1. Rising electricity consumption and changing patterns:
   Global demand increased by over 4% in 2024, with peak demand growing faster than average demand in many regions, especially in Korea.

2. Grid bottlenecks:
   Increasing peak demand strains the grid, leading to congestion costs and curtailment of renewable energy. In 2024, grid congestion cost USD 8 billion in the US and USD 4.5 billion in the EU, with over 10 TWh of renewable curtailment in the EU alone.

3. Volatility in electricity markets:
   Balancing costs have risen by up to eight times in some power markets over the last five years. Negative prices have been observed in Australia, the US, and Europe, creating uncertainty for investors.

Challenges to Scaling Demand Flexibility

• Weak incentives and regulatory frameworks that favor new infrastructure over smart system operation.
• High upfront and ongoing investment in enabling infrastructure, digital capabilities, and cybersecurity.
• Low digital readiness in some regions.
• Limited public awareness and unequal access to enabling technologies, which risks excluding certain groups and undermining fairness and trust.

Policy Priorities

• Integrate demand flexibility with energy efficiency in regulatory, market, and planning frameworks.
• Provide clear investment signals to encourage the development and deployment of flexible resources.
• Support digital infrastructure and cybersecurity to enable safe and effective use of smart technologies.
• Promote socially inclusive policies to ensure equitable access to flexibility measures, particularly for low-income households.

Deployment Across Sectors

Demand flexibility can be implemented in multiple sectors:

• Residential: Shifting EV charging and heat pump operations to off-peak hours, using smart devices for pre-cooling or pre-heating.
• Commercial: Optimizing building energy use through dynamic pricing and real-time signals.
• Industrial: Rescheduling non-critical processes to times of lower demand.
• Storage: Utilizing batteries to charge during off-peak or store excess renewable generation.

International Experience

• California used Flex Alerts to reduce demand by over 2100 MW in under five minutes, avoiding a blackout.
• France saw 800 MW of demand reduction during a cold snap in 2022, preventing a blackout.
• Western Australia leveraged demand flexibility to avoid outages on six of the highest demand days in 2023/24.
• Denmark demonstrated the potential of demand flexibility by consuming 256 GWh of electricity during low-price, renewable-rich periods in Aarhus.

Cybersecurity Concerns

As systems become more digitalized, demand flexibility introduces new cybersecurity risks. The growing use of smart meters, connected devices, and automated systems increases the attack surface. Examples of cyberattacks on energy systems include:

• 2015–2016: Cyberattacks on the Ukrainian power grid caused outages for 225,000 customers.
• 2019: A ransomware attack in South Africa temporarily prevented 250,000 customers from accessing electricity.
• 2025: A ransomware attack on the Swedish national grid operator led to a data breach.

In response, governments and regions are strengthening regulatory frameworks and standards for cybersecurity, including the EU Network Code on Cyber Security, updated US standards, and new codes in Australia, Japan, Singapore, and the UK.

Conclusion

Demand flexibility is a cornerstone of modern, secure, and efficient electricity systems. It enables cost-effective and scalable solutions to manage supply and demand, supports clean energy integration, and improves affordability and security. However, to fully realize its potential, targeted policies, investment in digital infrastructure, and inclusive frameworks are essential.