在未来欧洲电力系统中灵活性要求和储能的作用（英）-36页_1mb

Flexibility Requirements and Storage Solutions in Future European Power Systems

1. Summary of Flexibility Requirements

• Trends:
  Flexibility needs increase significantly in all EU Member States by 2030 and 2050 due to higher shares of variable renewable energy (VRES).

  • Daily (133% increase by 2030, 250% by 2050), Weekly (160% by 2030, 340% by 2050), Monthly (200% by 2030, 305% by 2050).
  • Relative share of flexibility to total demand rises from 10% (2030) to 11% (2050) on an EU average basis.

• Share by Time Scale:

  • Daily: Largest absolute need (288 TWh in 2030 vs. 775 TWh in 2050).
  • Monthly: Highest relative increase (from ~173 TWh in 2030 to ~494 TWh in 2050).

2. Drivers of Flexibility Requirements

• VRES Impact:
  • Solar PV drives daily flexibility (stronger at intra-day scales).
  • Wind energy drives weekly/monthly flexibility (linked to seasonal patterns).
    increased VRES capacity leads to higher flexibility needs (e.g., 74% VRES share in total installed capacity triggers a sharp rise in requirements).

3. Key Technologies for Flexibility

• Primary Sources:
  • Interconnectors: Dominant for longer-term flexibility (33% share in monthly flexibility by 2030).
  • Batteries: Mainly address daily fluctuations, e.g., lithium-ion batteries in high-GHG-emission zones (e.g., EU baseline).
  • Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS): Effective for weekly/monthly flexibility.
  • Thermal/Conventional Units: CCGTs contribute across all timescales.

4. Economic Value of Storage Technologies

• Market Arbitrage:
  • Spot Market: Storage technologies (batteries, PHS) show limited profitability, e.g., Lithium-ion profitability range (3–12%).
  • Lower Bound: Current model assumes a lower bound due to missing forward market uncertainties and ancillary service revenues.

5. Optimisation of Storage in 2030 EU System

• Baseline (MIX-H2 2030):
  Substantial battery deployments (57.7 GW).
• Sensitivity Analysis:
  • Gas-peakers dominate if battery CAPEX is high (OCGT profitability up to 100% in some zones).
  • CAPEX Impact: Batteries become competitive at ~33% of 2030 CAPEX levels.
• Interconnector Dependency:
  Reducing interconnector capacity increases local storage needs, e.g., 1 GW interconnector reduction replaced by ~2 GW batteries.

6. Conclusions

• Flexibility requirements will triple by 2050 (2,189 TWh total).
• Technology mix must balance between interconnectors, storage technologies (batteries/PHS), and conventional thermal units.
• Policy focus on reducing CAPEX barriers for batteries and leveraging interconnectors is critical.