2025-06-02-麦肯锡-从保护到促进_产业政策的新时代（英）_10页_466kb

Geopolitical Industrial Policy: Shift from Protection to Promotion

Industrial policy has seen a dramatic increase since 2017, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions. Subsidies and incentives have quadrupled, with a particular focus on critical industries like defense, semiconductors, and energy. This "new age" of industrial policy is reshaping global markets by influencing trade, investment, and competition.

Historically, industrial policies were sidelined by free-trade norms but have rebounded due to events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, spurring efforts like "onshoring" production. Countries such as China and the U.S. dominate policy interventions, with China using more financial incentives, while the U.S. has seen rapid growth, especially post-pandemic.

The main types of industrial policies are:

• Financial incentives: Include grants, loans, and subsidies, which comprise about three-quarters of all measures.
• Fiscal incentives: Involve tax benefits and regulations on foreign investment.
• Market promotion: Actions like public procurement and price stabilization to boost demand.

Key industries receiving heavy support include defense (aligned with geopolitical concerns), high-end equipment, and emerging sectors like batteries and hydrogen energy. For instance, battery subsidies reached nearly 30% of global revenues in 2023, while hydrogen energy is growing due to sustainability goals. Geopolitical motives are evident in policies supporting critical technologies to reduce reliance on imports, such as in semiconductors.

Business implications are significant. Companies must explore available incentives across different levels of government (federal, regional, local) to maximize returns and manage risks. They should evaluate trade-offs, like potential export restrictions or labor shortages, and benchmark against competitors to navigate changing landscapes. Subsidies can alter competitive balance but may be subject to change, so businesses need resilient business cases that don't rely solely on government support.

In summary, while industrial policies present opportunities for growth, they also introduce risks. By actively engaging with these dynamics, businesses can position themselves for success in a competitive, evolving market.