20251205-瑞达期货-聚氯乙烯市场周报_22页_2mb

PVC Market Weekly Summary

Recent Price Movement

PVC prices showed volatility, with the V2601 futures contract ending the week down 2.70% to 4426 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand amid a slight rise in supply.

Fundamental Factors

• Supply: Output increased to 49.04万吨 (+0.32%环比), supported by plant restarts (e.g., Shandong Hengtong and LG Chem) and a -0.33% decline in capacity utilization to 79.89%.
• Demand: Downstream sectors, particularly pipe materials and profiles, saw reduced utilization (环比 -0.54% overall to 49.07%).
• Inventory: Social inventory accumulated by 1.55% to 105.89万吨, remaining at high levels.

Cost and Profit

• Electric stone method costs rose due to higher electricity/inputs, while ethylene method costs fell with declining ethylene prices, leading to profit contraction (-1018 yuan/ton for electric stone, -472 yuan/ton for ethylene methods).

Future Outlook

• Next week, capacity utilization may increase slightly, but seasonal demand weakness in winter (due to cold weather) and global supply issues are expected to persist. Short-term prices are projected to be weak, fluctuating around 4320-4470 yuan/ton, influenced by inventory pressure and uncertain electric stone cost support.